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Human error

Last year’s deadly mudslide at Zhouqu offers compelling lessons on the ability of human development to increase the risk of natural disasters, writes Jiang Gaoming.

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2010 was another bad year for China in terms of natural disasters: severe drought in the south-west was followed by floods on the upper Yangtze. Then came the mudslide in Zhouqu and then more flooding, this time in the country’s north-east. Extreme weather played a central role in this series of tragedies, of course. But the ability of humans to increase the risk and impact of such crises should not be overlooked. The mudslide in Zhouqu – and the area’s recent development history – offers a powerful example.

Zhouqu county, in China’s north-western province of Gansu, was once known for its forests, rich water resources, fertile land and pleasant climate. But after the felling of tens of billions of cubic metres of timber and the construction of huge numbers of hydropower dams, the area’s hills have been left barren and unable to absorb rainfall.

Let’s look at the forests first. The county of Zhouqu has historically been rich in vegetation, with 1,300 species of higher plant alone. In the past, 1,940 square kilometres of land was available for forestry, 65% of the county’s total area. Of this, 820 square kilometres, or 45%, was actually forested, a higher percentage than the Gansu and national averages of 7.5% and 22% respectively. Unfortunately, these forests have been decimated by three decades of felling. In the 1970s, 80,000 cubic metres of lumber were already being chopped down annually. Unchecked tree felling and trading eventually led to the county’s forestry resources diminishing by 100,000 cubic metres per year.

Following last August’s devastating mudslide, reporters noted that the hillsides above the Sanyan valley, one of the worst hit areas, were bare of trees and even the brush was sparse. According to local elders, when they were in their teens the valley was covered with large trees. Once the hillsides were stripped, the villagers grazed goats here, worsening the environmental damage. Without the vegetation, heavy rain was able easily to loosen soil and stones, triggering landslides that threatened lives and property below.  

In addition to deforestation, widespread construction of hydropower dams has contributed to the area’s vulnerability. The Bailong River, the largest tributary of the Jialing, is 600 kilometres long, 450 kilometres of which flows within the borders of Gansu province. The rapid flow as the river passes down through the mountains makes this an ideal area for building hydropower facilities – and many have been built. But with no thought given to upstream ecologies, such projects have increased the likelihood of mudslides. The Bailong flows through a zone that is prone to earthquakes and the quarrying of stone from the banks of the river to build the dams has further destabilised the hillsides.

Hydropower stations, both large and small, can be seen on any tributary of the Bailong. Surveys show there are as many as one thousand of them: big ones ranging in capacity from 200 to 300 megawatts, medium-sized ones from five to six megawatts and, more commonly, small dams of several hundred kilowatts each. These dams have all been built since the 1970s, almost in step with the rampant deforestation around them.

Hydropower construction often conflicts with environmental protection goals. Dam-building has led to the destruction of forest reserves, for example, and intervention by the forestry authorities is rarely effective. Even though local government approval processes include an environmental impact assessment, since most hydropower projects are built with inward investment, ecology invariably loses out to hydropower.

Between 2003 and 2007, contracts for 53 hydropower projects were signed in Zhouqu. Forty-one of these have since been built or are now under construction and the remaining 12 will soon follow. Together, they account for 80% of the county’s development projects. It is estimated that the 41 dams being built or already finished will result in the dredging of 38.3 million cubic metres of sediment and the loss of 749,000 tonnes of soil. On completion of a dam, water soaks the hillsides and loosens the earth, creating a situation where landslides could happen at any time. The dredging of sand also leaves the river bed covered in rocks which can be swept away by floodwaters, making those floodwaters much more dangerous.

The third major problem we come to is building on river courses. Although mudslides and landslides have raised awareness of the dangers among local people, there is still a lack of urban planning and construction is still happening in vulnerable areas. The narrow valley floor on which Zhouqu lies is just 12 square kilometres in area. The population has been growing for decades, and the only place left to build is the river banks. Property developers see the Sanyan and Luojia rivers as their only option and have been buying up land for construction. Some people have built houses there. The densely-populated areas that were hit by the disaster – such as Yueyuan, Dongjie and Dongguan – are all alongside the rivers and have experienced explosions in property development.

Zhouqu exploited its mountains, its water and its rivers and, in return, suffered a powerful mudslide. This is the national ecological disaster in microcosm. China endured 26,000 geological disasters from January to July last year, nearly four times as many as the same period in 2009. Around 200,000 geological risk points have been identified. Tens of thousands of these lie in mountainous provinces such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Gansu, Shaanxi, Hunan and Hubei and have the potential to unleash disaster on the scale of Zhouqu.

The riches of economic development are not as valuable as green mountains and clear rivers. And it is ordinary, local people who are left to endure the impacts of environmental disasters. The suffering in Zhouqu is environmental suffering. It is time for an approach to human development that avoids putting environment, lives and property at risk simply for the sake of economic growth.


Jiang Gaoming is chief researcher at
 the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Botany.

Homepage image from SFTHQ

 

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Default thumb avatar
dengdeng

舟曲能卖什么?

作者说“舟曲县一卖山,二卖水、三卖河道”。我们很多学者一味批评当地破环环境,忽视可持续发展,能不能也给当地提出一些发展的建议。

如果一个地方连发展都无从谈起,一旦有了机遇,谁还在乎那是可持续的还是不可持续的?就这一点来说,首先大城市就做了坏榜样。他们有更多发展的选择和机会,但也没把环境当回事儿。像一些只能依靠环境发财的地方,哪有那么高的觉悟为未来着想。

How can Zhouqu make a living?

The author says that "Zhouqu exploited its mountains, its water and its rivers." All a lot of our academics do is criticise locals for destroying the environment, while overlooking sustainable development. How about coming up with a few suggestions for how the area could develop?

If somewhere doesn't know where to start developing then as soon as there is an opportunity they will take it, without caring if it is sustainable or not. On this point, the large cities are a bad example. They had greater choices and opportunities to develop, but still they chose not to consider the environment. In places where the only route to riches is through their environment, who would have the vision to think of the future?

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meter

是的,这是整个社会的导向问题

作者写的没错,我相信是给所有考虑未来而非眼前利益的智者们一个思考改过的提醒,而非指责某个个体,希望每个地球的子民都尽起保护自己的家园的责任啊!

Yes, it's a society-oriented matter

The author is right. I believe it is not censure to a certain individual but a reminder to wise people, who consider the future rather than immediate interests, to reconsider and correct mistakes. I hope everyone on the earth shoulder the responsibility to protect our own homeland!

Default thumb avatar
cdhelennh

not convinced

我理解的本文作者是植物学家。但他的一些论断,我认为得让水利或山地灾害专家来做或引用这些学者的研究,会显得更有说服力。
比如,“在云南、贵州、四川、重庆、甘肃、陕西、湖南、湖北等山多坡陡的省市,类似于舟曲的特大型和大型地质灾害隐患点数以万计”;还有“修建水电站后,山体被水浸泡松软,水电站附近随时都会发生滑坡。”等等。
我不是搞自然科学研究的,但最近接触到一些研究,比如在地震断裂带上的岷江水电开发就是很有地方特色的。该河流上游的很多水电站都不是拦坝蓄水式的,而是凿洞引流,即把整个山体凿空,水流利用山体落差在洞内装机发电。这和拦坝式的水电对地质山体的危害是不同的,不知道哪一种对当地山体危害最大。
可能是中外对话的篇幅限制吧,蒋专家并没有展开,但如果有更多合适的文献应该注明一下供读者深入学习。

not convinced

I understand the author is a botanist. But I think, for some of his conclusions, he has to let water or mountain disaster experts conduct research or should refer to research done by these scholars, since this will make his arguments more convincing.

For example, “Tens of thousands of [geological risk points] lie in mountainous provinces such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Gansu, Shaanxi, Hunan and Hubei and have the potential to unleash disaster on the scale of Zhouqu.”; and “On completion of a dam, water soaks the hillsides and loosens the earth, creating a situation where landslides could happen at any time,” and so on.

I’m not engaged in natural science research but recently came upon some studies, like one that revealed the construction of hydropower stations along an earthquake fault zone on the Min River takes into account many local conditions. Many hydropower dams along this river’s upper reaches don’t obstruct water flows, but are more like drainage holes. The entire mountain acts like a drain, with installations inside crevices able to generate power from water flowing over the mountain. The geological hazards of this method of producing hydropower differ from those for dams that block the flow of water, and I don’t know which type is the most damaging to local mountains.

Perhaps Chinadialogue is constrained by space, so the points raised by the expert, Mr. Jiang, are not very developed. But if there is more appropriate literature out there, ChinaDialogue should indicate this so readers can look more deeply into the topic.

Default thumb avatar
tdeanxx

水电站及大坝诱发地震活动

蒋的文章谈到了在林区及山区建立水电站的环境代价,但却并未提及2008年四川大地震与紫平铺大坝之间的可能性关联。科学家对两者之间的联系已经有过争论,但作为一个地球物理学家,我想说的是,这个致使数千人失去生命,五百万人流离失所的巨大灾难很有可能与这个地震有关联。地壳活跃地带的断裂层往往十分接近断裂点,而临近断裂带的坝体填筑致使蓄水压力突变可能引发断裂带的突然断裂,即便该区域可能长期处于非地震活跃区。人们所讨论的四川断裂带距离紫平铺大坝只有1公里,在地震爆发的几个月内一直是蓄满水的。去年,我对这个地方进行了视察,可以肯定地说大坝本身没有坍塌已是不幸中的万幸,否则洪水可能席卷成都,三峡大坝可能遭遇击溃。这是一个很重要的例子,也显明了在开发地形复杂的山区中科学判断人类及自然环境代价的重要性与艰巨性。

Hydro-power and Dam Induced Seismicity

Jiang’s article touches on the environmental costs of hydropower in forested, mountainous areas, but didn’t mention the likely connection between the Zipingpu dam and the great Sichuan earthquake of 2008. The connection has been debated by scientists, but as a geophysicist, I would say that this great disaster that killed thousands and left five million homeless very likely can be linked to the quake. Faults in tectonically active areas are always very near the rupture point, and a sudden change in the hydrological pressure due to a dam filling near a fault can cause the fault to fail abruptly, even if it has been seismically inactive for long periods of time. The Sichuan fault in question passed within a kilometer of the Zipingpu dam, which was filled to capacity within months of the earthquake. I visited the area last year and can say with some certainty that it is extremely fortunate that the dam itself did not fail, possibly leading to the flooding of Chengdu and the overwhelming of the Three Gorges Dam. This is an important example of the importance and difficulty of scientifically determining the human and environmental costs of development in complex mountainous regions

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匿名 | Anonymous

hi

this was super helpful!!!!!!☺☻♥