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Don’t leave our survival to the greens

The west won’t be mobilised on climate change by utopian demands that we give up our standard of living, argues Will Hutton. A visionary plan that can be backed by the public is critical.

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The green movement as it stands should receive the last rites. Its only hope is for a complete overhaul. Its mystic, utopian view of nature and its attachment to meaningless notions such as sustainable development or the precautionary principle should be done away with. It is time to move on.

Or so says professor Anthony Giddens in his new book, The Politics of Climate Change. It is not that Giddens disputes that mankind is dangerously warming up the planet. The scientific evidence is overwhelming; the risk of a global calamity all too real.

It is just that he has the chutzpah to acknowledge what is obvious. Despite the threat, and the mounting evidence, there is no hope of mobilising western governments and the public into action by appeals to green utopianism or impossible demands to give up our current standard of living. There needs to be a new language, a focus on climate change alone, because that is what counts and is a practical route forward that makes sense to the mass of people. Otherwise, we really are lost.

Giddens curiously and paradoxically overlaps with former British chancellor of the exchequer Nigel Lawson’s recent polemics against environmentalists. Yet Giddens is not a global-warming sceptic like Lawson, who disputes even the evidence of science. But he does understand Lawson’s impatience with some of the daffy thinking that surrounds the environmental debate and tries to replace it with some tougher ideas.

How, he asks, are we ever to mobilise public opinion about distant threats that inevitably feel not very real? By the time it is proven that the scientists were right, it will be too late to do anything. The inhabitants of Easter Island who destroyed their own ecosystem are a warning. Human beings are myopic. Now the same myopia is evident globally. We have to do better, not least to see off the siren-like arguments of the Nigel Lawsons.

The first problem is that the green movement is shot through with contradictory impulses. Britain’s Prince Charles and the Group of 20 (G20) protesters cannot realistically muster under the same intellectual and political banner. Charles has the conservatives’ reverential attitude towards the enduring and natural forces of nature. His love of nature is genuine, but it segues seamlessly into his view that monarchy is as much part of the natural order as the seasons. Nobody is trying to keep global temperature growth to below 2° Celsius to save the Windsors.

On the other wing of the green movement, the G20 protesters interpret climate change as proof positive of the evils of capitalism and the capitalist state. They believe there needs to be a return to the local and a new radical left politics. The state should be broken down. Capitalism should be superseded by local co-operative enterprise and local political decision-making. Food should be organic. Trade should be constrained. Air travel and car use radically reduced. And so on.

The vast majority are unmoved. Worse, many mainstream environmental intellectuals drop rigour when it comes to the environment, climate change and risk. Under the precautionary principle, almost nothing should be done that endangers the climate, just in case the worst scientific warnings are right. The aim should be sustainable development -- to grow economically in a way that passes the globe on to the next generation in the same condition in which we found it.

Giddens joins Lawson in dismissing this thinking as wretchedly woolly. Are we really going to risk nothing? This is a refutation of our very risk-taking humanity. In any case, there is little chance of building a consensus over which risks matter and to what degree. Instead, the percentage principle should rule -- taking risks in proportion to the probable good and bad outcomes. Moreover, sustainable and development should not be used together so loosely. Development is a dynamic concept that necessarily depletes resources. Poor countries such as China or India can only develop unsustainably. They must burn coal. To ask the entire world to commit to sustainable development is to damn the less developed world to poverty. Those countries will never agree.

The dead end of the current debate is revealed in a sequence in the new film The Age of Stupid. Middle-class lobbyists are filmed successfully resisting planning permission for a wind farm, acknowledging as they do so that there does need to be action on global warming.

But similar middle-class lobbyists could have been filmed resisting planning permission for Heathrow Airport’s third runway, this time using the same green arguments. The common thread is that home-owners don’t want development near them and they deploy any useful argument to hand. Sometimes they are right, sometimes wrong.

For example, there are powerful arguments for a third runway; Heathrow’s capacity is pivotal to the vibrant “knowledge economy” in west London and the counties of Surrey, Hampshire, Berkshire and Oxfordshire. With the collapse of financial services, this is Britain’s economic future. Certainly, hundreds of thousands of residents in west London will suffer more flights, if from quieter aircraft, yet their interests must be offset by the interests of many more millions.

Climate change cannot be a political game, to be played as and when it suits particular protesters – either G20 protesters or “Nimbys” [middle-class people who say “not in my back yard”]. The country needs to develop a vision of where it wants to be in, say, 2025, in terms of carbon emissions, energy independence and wider economic structures. Then it needs to “back-cast” to today and make sure what it does is part of a wider plan that builds, step by step, towards that vision. So if the UK government wants to build a third Heathrow runway, it must show how it intends to compensate for higher air traffic with radically lower carbon emissions elsewhere. It is called planning. It needs to come back into fashion -- fast.

The best arguments to kill the “so-what” factor over climate change are not scary tales from a far-distant future. It is to argue for investment in energy efficiency because it saves cash and makes strategic sense. Tidal and wind power along with nuclear energy emit less carbon, but they also free Britain and the west from dependence on Russia and radical Islamicist oil-producing states.

Cars powered by electricity or hydrogen are cheaper. The less-developed world will only follow suit if the west picks up the bill. But to persuade western publics to make sacrifices requires more than trying to terrify them. It requires laying out concrete actions that collectively make sense now.

Greens and environmentalists will challenge Giddens’s book. It is true that as a result of their campaigning the culture is changing; but far too slowly. The danger is far too serious to be co-opted by the left, nimbyists, G20 protesters, princes or utopian conservationists. There needs to be a visionary plan that spells out where we want to be, and in which a series of feasible and justifiable actions is delivered by the state, which can then be backed by mainstream opinion. Otherwise, our civilisation will go the same way as that of Easter Island.

www.guardian.co.uk


Copyright Guardian News and Media Limited 2009

Homepage photo by Andrew*

 

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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

民间气候研究者质疑‘京都议定书’有无降温效力

面对冰雪加速融化绝不能继续沉默在‘温室效应’光环误导下!全人类共同的生存问题更不能继续回避!降污期待降温贻误最佳治理时机!······只有【地球新工程】可从根本解决全球气候变暖问题!······

人类新意服务共同体

Public climate researchers query the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol on world cooling.

Facing up to the reality of the accelerating ice melt can no longer be kept silent under the misleading pelmet of the "Greenhouse Effect"! We cannot continue to avoid the common survival problem of all humanity! Waiting for a reduction in warming to reduce pollution wastes an optimum management opportunity! Only the "New Earth Project" would fundamentally be able to solve the global warming problems. Fresh ideas from humanity serve the whole community.

Translated by Nathalie Thorne

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

作者的观点很极端

的确如作者说的,环保者会怀疑你的观点。在我们选择做任何一件事前,如果不充分考虑环境,以及其他利益,我不觉得这样的考虑就真正能起到作用,虽然有时,我们主观上的确为了所谓的“拯救地球”!yfy

It's not quite so black-and-white as that

I think a lot of environmentalists would question your portrayal of the situation. Before deciding on a course of action, we have to consider both the environment and other interests, otherwise it will all amount to nothing, even if we are sometimes more subjectively concerned with "saving the world," as you put it.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

乏味之谈

哈顿只不过又是一个西方的辩护者。现在所面对的无非是工程上的问题,所以解决问题的方案应该是由工程师来提供,而并不是某个在英国坐在舒适的家里夸夸其谈的受过高等牛津教育的学者。向发展中国家提供能源的技术早已存在,可问题是谁(或者说那些国家)应该提供这些技术。我认为欧洲,北美,中国,甚至巴西都有这个义务。

Tedious

Hutton is another western apologist. The problem is an engineering problem, nothing more nothing less. The solutions thus need to come from engineering rather than Oxford educated classics graduates talking from comfortable homes in England. Most of the technology to provide power to developing countries exists - now. The issue is who (i.e. which nations) will provide this. In my view, Europe, North America, China and perhaps Brazil have a role to play in this effort.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

绿色能拯救什么?

如果哈顿认为绿色不能拯救人类?那么下一个问题就是我们调动了全球的政治和经济资源在作的应对气候变化的工作为了什么?或者说绿色能拯救什么?
的确应当质疑可持续发展原则,因为这一原则的落脚点仍旧是“发展”!回首资本主义世界的发展历程,第一次到第五次工业革命后,当IT产业不再能创造摩尔定律下的辉煌成就后,气候变化这一论调的提出正是为西方资本寻找到了颠覆式的发展方向,也就是全球不再应该重复资本世界发展的旧模式了!我们应当向绿色转型!这一崇高的无法在道德层面驳斥的论调真的正在让这个世界改变,他改变了原先备受推崇的自由贸易原则(美国和欧洲正在酝酿的碳关税已经开始了新一轮的碳贸易限制),改变了顺差至上的贸易圣经(2007年IMF的新决定认为顺差是造成国际不平衡的根源),改变了发展中国家追求经济发展和国民生活质量提高的合理性(例如中国的环境威胁论、人口威胁论、粮食威胁论等)。大量的发展先机和发展方向被西方操纵,掌握大量技术能够重新布局国际经济发展模式的西方已经不再愿意看到中国这样的国家利用其传统的发展模式比肩西方了,因此,谈们创造了气候变化的神话,其实,目的很可能就是向创造金融衍生产品一样创造一个名词(气候变化),让后让世界成为西方资本游戏下的玩偶,满足其资本利益的最大化。
威尔•哈顿认为,那些要我们牺牲生活质量的乌托邦式要求是无法打动西方人来应对气候变化的。那么也请哈顿教授记住,西方那些打算牺牲发展中国家发展权的要求连乌托邦的理想主义都不是,我们也要使用资源、使用能源、开上汽车、乘坐飞机、改变生活!
如果真的要改变这一切,必须让西方发挥表率作用,而不是口惠而实不至的喧嚣。
评论人是华东政法大学国际法学博士生李威。

What can the Green save?

If Hutton thinks that the green can't save humans, the next question is that for what we mobilize global economic and political resources to deal with climate changes. Or what can the green save?

Indeed, we should challenge the Sustainable Development Principle, because the main point of it is still the development. Looking back the development of capitalistic world, from the first to the fifth industrial revolution and when the IT industry can't create the splendid achievement according to the Moore law, the introduction of this view of climate change provides a disruptive development direction for western capitalism, that is to say, other global countires should not repeat the old modes of capitalistic world. We should switch to the green economy. This viewpoint, which is so elevated that it cannot be refuted in terms of moral, is changing the world. It changes the highly valued free trade principle (the carbon duties that is in embryo in the hand of America and Europes begin a new wave of carbon trade restrictions) and the trade Bible that the favorable trade balance is supreme. (In 2007, according to the new decision of IMF, favorable trade balance is the source of international imbalances. It changes the rationality of economic development and the improvement of citizens' living standards that developing countires are pursuing (such as China's environment threat, population threat, grains threat ect.) Many developing opportunities and directions are in the hand of the Western countries, which can allocate anew the developing modes of international economy by taking advantage of mastering large amount of technology, they don't want counties, like China, to keep up with them by the traditional modes. Therefore, they create the myth of climate change. Actually, their purpose is probably to create a new term (climate change) like creating financial derivatives to make the world become a doll in the game between western countries and it can satisfy the maximum capital profits.

Will Hutton thinks that the utopian demand that we have to sacrifice our living quality, can't move westerners to deal with climate changes. Then please remember ,Pro.Hutton, those demands of western countries that they attempt to sacrifice developing rights of developing countries is even not utopian idealism. We will also use resources and energy. We will drive cars, take planes and change our lives.

If we want the situation to be changed, western countries should be a role model, rather than pay lip services. commentator:Li Wei,doctor of international laws in East China University of Political Science and Law.

Translated by Chen Liying (Anna)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

不是放肆

把本来就很明显的事讲出来并不是放肆。罗马不是一天建成的,已经有很多发起者在解决诸如排放限制与额度交易的问题了。例如这篇文章http://www.derivativeslawyer.com/commodity/emission.php

Not chutzpah

It is not chutzpah to state the obvious. Rome was not built in one day and there are already a lot of initiates to tackle the problem such as cap and trade e.g this article http://www.derivativeslawyer.com/commodity/emission.php