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China’s post-Kyoto roadmap

Negotiating the next global climate deal presents the country with a minefield of political and economic challenges, particularly on technology transfer. Tang Xuepeng reports.

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In the recently published government document “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change”, China gave its full support to a new proposal that developed nations should contribute 1% of their GDP (equal to US$130 billion for the United States; US$160 billion for the European Union) to help poorer nations reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This new proposal is seen as one of China’s primary bargaining chips for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland, in December.  

The western developed nations will inevitably reject this call, as they are only interested in including developing countries such as China and India in the ranks of those obliged to cut emissions. We can regard the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as establishing a fair but loose structural framework. However, this treaty provides no targets for the reduction of emissions from developing nations. When the main clauses of the protocol expire in 2012, humanity must negotiate another executable framework, either by improving on Kyoto or by starting again. This goal is the ultimate aim of another UN climate conference, to be held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 2009.

The United States chose not to be included in the original Kyoto Protocol, despite being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. While the Kyoto agreement did set targets for emission reductions against 1990 levels in developed nations, it did not define a plausible and quantifiable method by which to calculate emissions. This omission has led to disputes over monitoring, confusion over data and the shifting and shirking of responsibility.

In addition, Kyoto’s joint implementation mechanism (JI), clean development mechanism (CDM) and emission trading mechanism all contain loopholes, weak implementation, a lack of a penalty system and a failure of developed counties to cooperate on technological transfer. In short, the protocol’s legacy will be more spiritual than practical.

The Americans have always explained their opposition to the Kyoto Protocol in terms of its failure to require developing nations to cut emissions. According to calculations by the World Resources Institute, China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased 108.3% from 1990 to 2004, compared with 87% in India and 67.8% in Brazil. Russia saw a decrease in emissions of 24.8% due to its economic collapse, while US emissions grew 19.8%.

It can be inferred that China is aware of the potential pitfalls at the Copenhagen meeting. Many predict that the world as a whole will demand that China accepts emission-reduction obligations. This call for action perhaps will be one of the most important markers of the post-Kyoto era. The United States was once the target for condemnation by environmentalists, but with the election of Barack Obama, we may see a change in that role. In comparison with his predecessor, George W Bush, Obama is a strong environmental advocate and a sort of spiritual ally of former vice-president Al Gore. Obama has indicated that the country will establish a compulsory greenhouse gas emissions trading system similar to a CO2 trading system.

China came under huge pressure at the UN climate conference in Bali, Indonesia, in 2007 -- not just from the European Union, but also from within the developing nations. As it will be difficult in the post-Kyoto era for China to just ignore this pressure, the country must plan its next moves accordingly. It will be important to maintain the core of the spiritual legacy of the Kyoto Protocol in future negotiations. This legacy includes maintaining the system of common but differentiated responsibilities; pressuring developed nations to take the lead in funding environmental protection and proposing appropriate emissions reduction targets for developing economies.

We believe that the most important achievement of last year’s Bali roadmap was the establishment of an environmental protection fund for the poorest nations. The Chinese proposal that the European Union and the United States should contribute 1% of their GDP can be seen as an extension of that idea. In fact, rich nations’ contributions could even be broadened. China could propose a new global environmental fund, with each nation’s donations given in proportion to its historical contribution to pollution, rather than in proportion to its current GDP. Since the industrial revolution, developed nations have accounted for 95% of emissions.

This fund also would act as a kind of deterrent because if a nation did not meet its proposed targets, it would be forced to increase its contribution as punishment. This solution also would address the Kyoto Protocol’s greatest weakness by providing penalties for inadequate implementation of pollution measures.

In a paper entitled “China’s Participation in Global Environment Negotiations” published this October, economists Tian Huifang and John Whalley described the long-term outlook for China’s emissions. They predict that by 2010 China will account for 21.1% of global emissions and overtake the United States with its predicted rate of 20.1%. In 2020, China’s emissions are predicted to be 23.9% of the global total, with the United States accounting for 18.8%. By 2030, the figures are predicted to be 26.2% and 18.5% respectively.

Although we do not agree with these coarse linear extrapolations that exaggerate China’s future emissions, we should be aware that these underlying trends do exist. Therefore, China must fight to have its reductions targets based on 2007 levels, rather than as a percentage of global emissions or set in terms of emissions per capita. With the US financial crisis causing a global recession, the Chinese economy will see five years of decline and rapid drops in carbon emissions, which indicates that 2007 may be a peak value for years to come.

When it comes to transfer of technology, the developed nations have always preferred to transfer “low-end” technology. They believe that releasing the latest environmental technology will allow developing nations to reduce their manufacturing costs, thereby leading to increased production and carbon emissions. Technology transfers are aimed at maintaining current manufacturing levels and are exclusive of any transfers that may increase productivity. In short, wealthy nations hope that developing nations will meet environmental standards by reducing production rather than improving technology.

China, naturally, will disagree with this idea in no uncertain terms and should stress the assimilation and application of complete and innovative sets of technology. China should also advocate the formulation of standards to determine the level of technology transferred and connect that level to the amount of emissions awarded. Only in this way will the developed nations be persuaded to undertake genuine transfers of advanced technology and achieve sustainable development targets.

 

Tang Xuepeng is a senior editor at the 21st Century Business Herald. This article has been expanded and revised from the original with consent of the author and the 21st Century Business Herald.

 Homepage photo by Sean Barnard

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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

中国的poznan之路

中国近几年的经济发展将伴随着更多的碳排放的增加,发达国家1%的份额要想实现,中国需要联合更多的发展中国家的力量,并做好自身的节能减排而不是停留在口号上

China's Road to Poznan

Recent economic development in China will entail increasing CO2 emissions. If the 1% share from developed countries is to be realised, China must collaborate with more developing countries and act on energy saving and emissions reduction, not just talk about it.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

后京都时代,美国应该带头.

人们总是善于去批评一件事物,而很少有人能提出具有建设性和可能性的建议.我觉得中国读者已经疲于看待批判的事物.没有可行性的建议,一切都是空谈.发达国家自身没有带好头,美国至今仍不愿加入议定书.我并不认为美国的态度在奥巴马上台后就会有任何实质意义上的飞跃.相反,美国会以自己的利益为中心,建立另一套国际能源环保的技术体制.他们要那环保技术赚钱,而并非为全人类的共同利益而做出协调性让步,甚至连义务也都不承担.

The US should take the lead in Post-Kyoto era

A deed is easy to get criticism but few constructive suggestions with feasibility. Chinese readers, in my view, has been tired of everything that gets only comment but nothing else. All is an empty talk without workable suggestion. The US still rejects the Kyoto Protocol to this day, and this shows that developed countries themselves take not a good lead. I don't think a substantial change in american attitude toward this will occur after Obama's coming into power. Instead, the US will install a technological system for international energy consumption and environmental protection that centers around its own interests. This set of technology is for money but not a concession corresponding with the common interests of the mankind as a whole. American might even shirk its due obligations.

Translated by Ming Li

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

中国与波兰

你的分析很吸引人,但如果不把中国与波兰共同的、以煤为能源的生产体系考虑进去的话,其成功的可能性看来渺渺!发达国家会拿出其1%的GNP以清理产煤或烧煤发电的事宜,这个假设心太高。每一步包含了甲烷的清理过程,在妥当及彻底的完成后,电价将是几何?

本评论由Ming Li翻译

china and poland

Your analysis is very interesting but seems to have a very low chance of success if you don't take any account of the common structure of energy production of both China and Poland, which is coal! It is very ambitious to presume that developed countries will accept 1% of their GNP to clean the coal, or clean the burning of coal for electricity. What will be the price of the electricity after a thorough and complete cleaning at each step of the process involving the methane itself?

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

技术转让是个难题

非常赞同作者最后提出的关于技术转让的设想,但是实行起来会很艰难。关于温室气体减排的技术转让问题很多,主要有以下几点:
1. 涉及到的工业领域广,技术复杂,应该优先实现哪些技术的转让
2. 发达国家实现技术转让的动力或压力与他们对国家利益的担心之间的平衡点该如何达到,即国际合作与国际竞争之间的平衡点该如何拿捏
3.如何用可测量可报告可核证的方法来评测技术转让
-------王姗姗

Technological transfer is hard to carry out.

I really agree the author with the ideas about technology transfer which were mentioned at the end of the article. But it is very hard to carry out. There are many obstacles to overcome in technology transfer of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which among of them were as follows: 1.With the complexity of technologies and the wide range of relative industries,it is difficult to decide which kinds of technologies should be transfered firstly. 2.How do the developed countries deal with the pressures from the worries about the nation interests when they transfer their technologies--to make a balance between international cooperations and international competitions? 3.How can technology transfer be evaluated by measurable,reportable and verifiable methods? ----Wang Shanshan
Translated by Liu Jingya