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Why obstacles to a deal on climate are mountainous

Solving the carbon-emissions problem requires concerted action among unequal participants over at least a century. Yet, writes Martin Wolf, the right thing to do is to try.

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Something has changed in the debate on man-made climate change: the United States is engaged. But its engagement – or at least the engagement of President George W Bush – is neither enthusiastic nor unconditional. In particular, at discussions among the heads of governments of the Group of Eight leading countries in Japan, Bush stressed that China and India had to participate. In this, he was right: it will be impossible to tackle the problem without the participation of leading emerging countries. The question is on what terms they do so.

This is to ignore the debate on whether man-made climate change is either plausible or correctly assessed. I find the arguments sufficiently cogent to justify action. Above all, I find persuasive the argument of Professor Martin Weitzman of Harvard University that it is worth paying a great deal to eliminate the risk of catastrophe. Those who reject such views need read no further.

Professor Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics, author of the United Kingdom government’s 2006 report on climate change, has analysed the issues in an interesting recent paper. He starts from a few simple propositions: first, the concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent in the atmosphere is now 430 parts per million and rising at the rate of two parts per million a year; second, the aim should be to stabilise concentrations at between 450 and 500 parts per million; finally, to achieve this, global emissions of greenhouse-gas equivalents must peak in the next 15 years and fall by at least 50%, relative to 1990 levels (about 90% of 2005 levels), by 2050, when global average emissions must be as low as two tonnes per head.

Historic trends and current emission levels indicate how big a change from “business as usual” these goals are: two tonnes per head is 10% of recent US levels and half China’s. Yet, argues Stern, this must happen if one takes the risks seriously. Worse, the longer the world waits, the bigger reductions must be, because the gases stay up for centuries.

How is this to be achieved? Any set of policies has to be effective, efficient and equitable. Let us examine each of these criteria in turn.

To be effective, the policy will need to reduce emissions sharply. The implication is that every activity and virtually every country will be affected. Developing countries, which will contain close to 90% of the world’s population and generate the bulk of the world’s emissions by 2050, must make a substantial contribution. On this, Bush is correct. The long-run world average of two tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per head is so low that no country can be allowed to go much above it.

The sectoral implications are also dramatic: big efforts will be needed to halt deforestation, for example, which currently contributes some 17% of man-made emissions; electricity generation will need to be carbon-free by 2050; and the global vehicle fleet, projected by the International Monetary Fund to increase by 2.3 billion vehicles between now and 2050, must become largely carbon-free, as well.

Efficiency is as easy to define as it is hard to accept: the marginal cost of reducing emissions should be the same in all activities everywhere. The price of carbon – whether set by a “cap and trade” scheme on emissions, a carbon tax or a hybrid – should also be the same everywhere. That China is now the world’s single largest emitter shows how vital it is for emissions to be priced there, too.

China’s emissions per unit of gross domestic product (at purchasing power parity) are double those of the United States and three times those of Japan. So far as possible, therefore, the best technology must be used everywhere. Yet the existing set of low-emitting technologies is not fully diffused across the globe. Achieving this could, argues Stern, reduce emissions by between five and 10 gigatonnes per annum by 2030 (10 to 20% of 2005 emissions).

Big efforts must also be made to develop and scale up nearly commercial technologies and create new ones. The fact that all the needed technologies do not yet exist makes estimates of what it will cost to achieve the targets an educated guess. This includes Stern’s figure of 1% of global gross output.

Yet the most intractable challenge of all is equity. Emissions have to be reduced everywhere, but the cost of doing so need not be borne by everyone. There are three powerful arguments why costs should be borne by high-income countries: first, they created the current problem; second, they still emit far more per head; and, third, they can afford it. Three-fifths of the stock of man-made greenhouse gases was put up by the high-income countries. In 2004, US emissions per head were also five times those of China and 17 times those of India.

So how is it possible to ensure the same price for carbon everywhere, while imposing the costs on rich countries? One answer is by paying for reductions in emissions in developing countries, while not penalising them for failure to meet targets. Such a scheme exists: the “clean development mechanism”. Its principle is reasonable. The difficulty is defining and measuring benchmarks, monitoring achievement and covering entire economies.

Yet this, however difficult, is the way Stern suggests the world should go up to 2020, when developing countries should also adopt limits. He suggests, specifically, that the current mechanism needs to move from a projects-based one to a “wholesale mechanism, perhaps based on sector-specific efficiency targets or on technology benchmarks”. Can this be made workable in China, India and other emerging economies? To be honest, I doubt it. But it seems to be the only way forward. Moreover, persuading developing countries to accept binding limits even in 2020 is bound to be hard, given the gross inequity of the starting point.

The G8 leaders claim to have made a breakthrough. This is nonsense. They have not begun to reach all the needed agreements, particularly with the developing countries. They have merely taken a first step among themselves. They have not even put in place policies to achieve the necessary reductions in emissions in their own countries, of between 75 and 90% by 2050.

This is much the most complex collective-action problem in human history. Solving it requires concerted action among unequal participants over at least a century. Yet the right thing to do is to try. If not us, who? And if not now, when?

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评论 comments

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

救救地球?还是靠你我做起吧

八国集团至今几年了?他们做些什么成绩出来了?这些头头们究竟知不知道他们是在浪费金钱?会照开,饭照吃,而结论却是不了了之,一切都仍是纸上谈兵。失望啊失望﹗救救地球?还不如靠你我的一分力。

Saving the earth? Let's just start from ourselves.

How many years have passed since the G8 was founded? And what outcome have we seen so far? Did the big shots even realize that they are wasting money? The meetings and procedures goes on while they are really accomplishing nothing. Seeing those armchair strategists posing themselves really became a disappointment. We can count more on ourselves than them on the issue of saving the earth.
(This comment was translated by Zheng Shen.)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

回评论1

我认为个人的行动的确十分重要并具有影响力。然而我觉得个人也不是万能的。一个人不可能以一己之力保护一泽湖泊或大洋免于污染,不能为整个社区提供分配水资源,也不能迫使大型公司遵循环保标准。当遇到的问题不能被切分成更小更易于控制的部分时,政府就需要介入了。
(本评论由Zheng Shen翻译)

Comment 1

I do think that individuals can make a difference, and that they are very very important. However, I don't think individuals can do everything. An individual cannot protect a large lake or an ocean from being polluted. An individual cannot distribute water resources for an entire community. An individual cannot force large companies to follow environmental standards. When it comes to problems that cannot be broken into manageable pieces, the government needs to step in.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

Mike Parr --PWR

我不能同意“回评论1”的说法。当多个个体协同行动时,他们就能够做出改变。PWR正与德国贝鲁伊特大学(University of Bayreuth)合作开发一个固碳系统,固碳方便且效果持久。它不但成本低廉,还适合在很多国家和地区使用,也就是说它能够在欧洲,非洲,以及中国被广泛应用。如果您想知道更多信息,请与我联系。
(本评论由Zheng Shen翻译)

Mike Parr - PWR

I disagree with "Comment 1". Individuals acting together can make a difference. PWR is working with the University of Bayreuth on a system that can sequestrate carbon quite easily (and quite permanently). It is low cost and would suit a wide range of regions and countries (i.e. it would work as well in China as it would in Europe or indeed Africa). Contact me if you want to know more.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

异数

这的确是世界上前所未见的“最复杂的集体行为”,但在为碳定价中寻找问题或是依靠自由市场来解决问题则是不太能被大众接受的一种异数理论。
(本评论由Zheng Shen翻译)

Heresy

I agree that this is most complex collective-action problem the world has ever met, but it is a heresy to look for at pricing carbon or generally relying on the free market.