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Another inconvenient truth

Developing countries on a carbon-intensive path face disaster, no matter what the rich world does. This is the uncomfortable conclusion of a study by David Wheeler, Kevin Ummel and Robin Kraft. Here, the authors present their findings.

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The international community now views global warming as a major threat, with particularly dire implications for developing countries. A common view on the problem in the south (the developing nations, as opposed to the north, or developed countries) was expressed in an address by India’s ambassador to the United Nations, who reportedly told developed nations that the main responsibility to mitigate climate change “rests with them”, while efforts to impose greenhouse-gas commitments on developing countries would “simply adversely impact” their prospects of growth. Although this view commands near-universal support in the south, it remains largely an article of faith. If the south begins aggressive mitigation now, will it actually damage its own growth prospects? Or will such mitigation improve those prospects by significantly reducing the impact of global warming on the south itself?
 

A lot hinges on these questions, so an empirical test of the conventional wisdom seems warranted. Does the evidence support this view? If the answer is yes, then the south should indeed defer costly mitigation and a double burden should fall on the north: it should reduce emissions rapidly and compensate any mitigation undertaken by the south. If the answer is no, on the other hand, the converse is true: southern emissions are, by themselves, sufficient to damage southern growth prospects. In this case, the south’s interest dictates immediate action to reduce its own emissions, whatever the north has done or will choose to do in the future.  

We will attempt to provide an unambiguous answer by isolating the southern experience, calculating historical and future emissions paths and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for both north and south. We will also compare the southern path to the global path that has provoked alarm about global warming.

This experiment enables us to test the view, implicit in the Indian ambassador’s statement, that the isolated southern concentration path lags so far behind the global path that the south can defer worrying about its own emissions until it is much richer.

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is determined by the pre-industrial concentration, plus cumulative emissions from human activity, minus terrestrial and marine re-absorption of emitted carbon. In our study, we combine a country-level emissions database and a land-use database to calculate cumulative anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere since 1850, using an approximation to the standard Bern carbon-cycle model that accounts for the intertemporal distribution of emissions among three reservoirs: the atmosphere, ocean and land biosphere. The model implies that for one tonne of carbon emitted in 1850, decay, or re-absorbtion of CO2, is relatively rapid during the first 40 years, with about 40% remaining in the atmosphere in 1890. However, rapid decline in the re-absorption rate leaves 25% of the original tonne in the atmosphere in 2010. We use this model to estimate contributions to atmospheric accumulation of CO2.

We then separate countries into the north and south. The north comprises Europe (including Turkey), the Former Soviet Union (FSU), North America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The south comprises Asia (excluding Japan and the FSU), Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific islands. 

The north has dominated cumulative emissions from fossil-fuel combustion. In 2000, cumulative atmospheric CO2 measures from fossil-fuel emissions in the north and south were 372 and 115 gigatonnes (Gt), respectively. For land-use change, the converse has been true: Extensive deforestation in the south raised its cumulative CO2 contribution to 180 Gt by 2000, while reforestation in the north led to carbon re-absorption and a decline from a peak in the early 1960s to 58 Gt by 2000. For fossil fuels and land-use change combined, the cumulative CO2 from the south in 2000 -- 295 Gt -- was almost 70% of cumulative CO2 from the north -- 430 Gt.

To project conditions in the near future, we use a scenario that reflects the current aspirations of many developing countries: rapid economic growth in a globalising economy, low population growth, the rapid introduction of more efficient technologies, and an energy path -- unconstrained by carbon emissions reductions -- that is consistent with the current development strategies of countries with abundant domestic fossil-fuel resources.

In our projections, annual emissions for the south and north are already diverging toward southern dominance in 2007. By 2025, only 18 years from now, the south’s annual emissions are around 32 Gt -- 32% higher than emissions from the north (21 Gt). We use the Bern model to calculate cumulative atmospheric CO2 from the two regions. By 2025, the cumulative CO2 from the south -- 555 Gt -- is 91% of the north’s 609 Gt. The south takes the lead about five years later.

With separate cumulative emissions series for the north and south, we can compute the atmospheric CO2 concentrations that are attributable to each region. This provides an illuminating comparison between the historical global CO2 concentration and the projected concentration attributable to the south alone. The south’s isolated concentration in 2025 matches the measured global concentration in 1986 -- 350 parts per million (ppm) (see figure 1). And by 1986, serious scientific concern about the greenhouse effect had already generated the crisis atmosphere that catalyzed the UN Conference on Environment and Development in 1992.

 

 

Source: Wheeler and Ummel. 2007. “Another Inconvenient Truth.”

Projecting the consequences of southern development alone, with no historical or future contribution from the north, by 2040 the south surpasses the current global concentration; by 2060, it surpasses the 450 ppm threshold that the IPCC associates with large, irreversible impacts on developing countries. By the end of the century, the atmospheric concentration is nearing 600 ppm and the south has long since passed the extreme-danger threshold. It is important to bear in mind that these figures are, if anything, conservative. They do not include possible carbon cycle feedback effects -- such as increased soil carbon respiration or diminished ocean absorption -- as the Earth warms and the oceans acidify. Such processes would result in concentrations of atmospheric CO2 even higher than reported here. The clear implication is that emissions from the South alone are more than enough to catalyse a climate crisis for the south.

Our results reveal the dangerous fallacy in the notion that the south can utilise carbon-intensive growth to dramatically increase incomes -- a kind of last-minute, fossil-fueled development push -- before the onset of catastrophic climate change. In this scenario the south achieves rapid short-run development, but on a carbon-intensive path that virtually assures the crossing of critical climate thresholds, even if there had never been any emissions from the north. To reinforce the implication, it’s worthwhile to pursue the counterfactual a bit further. By the 2030s, the scientists in an isolated south would observe unequivocal global warming, widespread glacial and polar melting, and a rising sea level. Out of necessity and self-interest, the south’s governments would then replicate the recent global experience by convening to plan for a carbon-free future.

Unfortunately, things are even more precarious for the south in the real world, which also confronts the north’s legacy of fossil-fueled growth. If global emissions continue unabated, the resulting increases in temperatures and sea level, greater storm intensity, reduced agricultural productivity and dwindling freshwater supplies will likely undermine the south’s development long before it arrives at northern income levels. But from the perspective of the south’s own self-interest, focusing exclusively on the northern sources of this problem is a dangerous distraction. As our results indicate, the south’s own emissions have already moved it near the brink of rapid global warming. Cumulative emissions from the north have primarily served to shift fundamental and unavoidable southern decisions about mitigation a few years closer to the present.

This conclusion is sufficiently startling that the mind gropes for an alternative to such injustice. Why should the south have fallen into this trap, when the north has somehow managed to avoid it? On reflection, the answer is obvious. The south’s population is over four times greater than the north’s, so it has been trapped by the sheer scale of its emissions at a much earlier stage of development. The south finds itself weighed down by a mass of humanity, as well as the energy technologies and fuels of an earlier age. The question is not if the south will commit to emissions reductions -- under any scenario it eventually must for its own sake -- but whether it will do so in time, and how the costs of the transition are to be shared.

We conclude that the conventional wisdom is dangerously misguided. The south cannot relegate mitigation to the north until it achieves prosperity. In fact, cumulative emissions from a carbon-intensive south have already reached levels that are dangerous for the south itself. They are more than sufficient to create a global climate crisis, even if the north eliminates all of its emissions immediately. So we face another inconvenient truth: a carbon-intensive South faces environmental disaster, no matter what the north does. For its own sake, the south must recognize this hard truth, accept the necessity of serious, costly mitigation, and immediately embark on a low-carbon development path. The north must clearly do the same, while recognising that its own survival requires an immediate, large-scale commitment to assisting emissions reductions in the south.

 

David Wheeler is a senior fellow at the Washington-based not-for-profit think-tank, the Center for Global Development

Kevin Ummel and Robin Kraft are both research assistants at the Center for Global Development

This article was adapted from a working paper published by the CenterforGlobalDevelopment.

 

Homepage photo by thorinside
 

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评论 comments

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

头号真相

最大的真相就是,戈尔是一个骗子,在他耸人听闻的宣传影片中歪曲了许多事实。

The first truth

Of course the first inconvenient truth is that Al Gore was a liar and misrepresented many things in his alarmist propaganda piece.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

又一个不可忽视的真相

漂亮!这是一篇精彩的文章。南方相关人士声称南方地区人均排放量远远小于北方水平,因此就没关系,不重要了。这篇文章指明了这种观点完全是无稽之谈。

本评论由 Zheng Shen 翻译

Another Inconvenient Truth

Bravo. An excellent article which makes a nonsense of "southern" assertions that its per capita emissions are small compared to those in the "north" and therefore largely irrelevant.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

评评语1

要控诉就要给出细节,如果你只是泛泛而论那没有人会重视。
本评论由 Lijin Zeng 翻译

on comment one

If you are going to make these accusations, why don't you back it up with some detail? Otherwise you are just grandstanding and there is no reason for anyone to take your comment seriously

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

袖手旁观的后果

很不错的文章。非常高兴看到大部分评论都赞同这一点(除了1号评论)。我认为最后一句是非常值得借鉴的一个观点:“北方国家必须同样采取行动……”我希望诸如本文的研究文章能够淡化国际气候谈判中的两极分化倾向。但我还是认为,北方国家援助南方国家是必要的。这是因为,我们都是利益攸关方,任何跨国投资最终都将惠及我们自身。迟迟拖延行动最终也会殃及我们。当北方国家肆意污染的时候,南方国家的人民不会像过去那样默默地忍受。他们会决一死战。

(该评论由Zhou Chen翻译)

One world of inaction, one nightmare

Well said. Glad to see that comments agree (except for comment one - come on, alarmist, but end justifies the means, surely).
I think one large thing to be taken away from this is the last sentence: "The north must clearly do the same...". I hope that well targeted studies like this will dilute the shifts towards polarisation of international climate engagement. But , that said, I think it is still desireable for "the North" to help "the South". This should be done because we are all stakeholders and any investment across borders will come back to us. Any delay in doing this will come back to us. And no, people in the South will not starve quietly so people in the North can pollute as before. They will go to war.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

难题

我对其他读者如何看这篇文章很感兴趣的。除非中国在碳吸存或替代煤的能源方面有所突破,否则摆在中国面前的仍是难题。 Martin Bunzl, www.csp.rutgers.edu
本评论由Canly Tseng翻译

Hard choices

I'd be interested in what other readers think the implications of this article are. It seems to suggest hard choices lie ahead for China unless there are some breakthroughs in carbon capture or alternatives to coal. Martin Bunzl, www.csp.rutgers.edu

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

到那个时候……

如果真变成那样,人们该怎么办呢?为了防止发生这种情况……我觉得这种情况不会发生在我们身上的,因为上帝与我们同在……

翻译:Catlin Fu

ThEn

IF that happens, what should people do?to prevent this happening...i don't think this gonna happen to us, because GOD is with us...

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

警示

不管他说的有多少是真,多少是假,他至少充当了一个敲钟人,给地球上的人警示。
It is our planet! Our only planet!

A Warning

No matter how much truth and untruth he tells, the author at least sounds a warning to human beings. It is our planet! Our only planet!

This comment was translated by Kate Truax.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

另一个真相

另一个真相!
所有人,无论南北,都必须马上采取行动!因为我们只有一个地球!

Liu

another truth

another truth!
we,both North and South,really need to take action now,because there is only one earth!

liu