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Understanding extreme weather in China

Heavy snowstorms this winter across China severely strained the country’s transportation and energy networks, but were they connected to global warming? The Pew Center explains how they fit with our changing climate.
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Heavy snowstorms this winter across central, eastern, and southern China have severely strained the country’s transportation and energy networks. Some of the most severe weather coincided with a mass travel period during February’s Lunar New Year celebration. The bad weather and high travel resulted in significant disruptions. An estimated tens of thousands of travellers were stranded as airports and train stations faced weather-related delays and closures, and congestion on China’s freight networks created a significant backlog of coal supplies that fuel much of the nation’s power systems.

These energy and transportation problems raise key questions concerning climate change impacts facing China. Below, Washington-area think-tank the Pew Center on Global Climate Change answers four key questions in response to these issues.

1. What is the direct cause of the snowstorms in China, and how do they fit into the global picture of today’s climate?

The Pew Center is not a meteorological centre and we are not able to offer a direct explanation of the development of individual weather events. However, what is happening in China seems to fit a larger pattern of frequent extreme weather events in other parts of the world, such as the severe European heat wave that killed many thousands of people in 2003, the powerful hurricanes that have struck China and the Americas in the past three years, the dramatic increase in wildfires in the western US and western Canada, and the historic droughts that have affected the US, Australia, and Europe in recent years. So, there appears to be a global pattern of more extreme weather events that many millions of people around the world are experiencing in recent years.

2. Do the snowstorms in China have any connection to global warming?

Science cannot determine whether any single weather event is directly connected to global warming. However, in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) documented that extreme weather events have become more common globally, including heavy rainfall and snowfall events, intense droughts, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. In some individual regions, the increases in particular types of extreme events have been attributed to global warming, such as extreme droughts in Australia and Europe. For the northern hemisphere or the entire globe, increased average rainfall and increased high temperature extremes have been attributed to global warming.

People are often confused by the idea that severe winter storms could be connected to global warming. How can increasing global temperatures cause heavy snowfall? The explanation is quite simple. Heavy snowfall requires moist air. Moist air results from warm conditions that evaporate water from the ocean or large lakes. When this air travels over land and meets colder air, the moisture will freeze and fall as snow. If the air over the ocean or large lakes becomes warmer, it will hold more moisture and the snowfall will increase. Also, snow fall can occur at -20 degrees Celsius or 0 degrees Celsius. So even if the cold air warms up, it will still make snow as long as the temperature remains below the freezing point.

So the unusual severe snow storm in China certainly fits a broader trend of increasing severe weather events that is well documented and it could well be a consequence of global warming. Even though it is not possible to say for sure that it is caused by global warming, like Hurricane Katrina and the 2003 European heat wave, it offers important lessons about the types of events society must prepare for in the future as a result of global warming.

3. Since summer 2007, China has experienced several extreme weather events, including floods and hurricanes in Chongqing and Jinan, and the snowstorms this winter. In the context of global warming, is the frequency of major natural disasters increasing?

The simple answer is yes. As the climate changes, extreme events are becoming more frequent on average. Of course, disasters are usually associated with man-made conditions, even in the case of weather events. For instance, as more people live close to the coast, more people become exposed to hurricanes, and a disaster is more likely even without climate change. Adding climate change on top of man-made circumstance simply increases the likelihood of a serious disaster.

4. What are the potential lessons to be learned for China from extreme weather events that seem to be increasing in frequency?

The most important lesson China can take from this event is that climate change has real and potentially severe costs. It is true that the US and Europe are responsible for most of the greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere. However, given its current path of development, China will be the largest single contributor to greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere in the future and will therefore be the largest contributor to those impacts that can still be avoided in the future. It is important, therefore, for China to understand the trade-offs that are inherent to any path of future economic development. Today a carbon-intensive economy may seem to be the most expedient path to economic growth, but the real and unpredictable costs to the economy of future climate change could be debilitating.

Historically, risk managers have looked to the past as a guide to the future. But with climate change, the future will no longer resemble the past. To ensure that China and all other societies can cope with climate change, serious reductions in manmade greenhouse gas emissions must be undertaken in the next few decades to reduce the extent of future impacts and all must take stock of current and projected impacts in order to prepare for a future unlike the past we have known.

As an example, these recent snowstorms illustrate that China’s energy security is intimately linked to climate security. China currently relies on coal for about 80% of electricity generation. While most of this coal is mined in the northern and western provinces, much of the surging growth in electricity demand has been experienced in the eastern coastal region. The eastern provinces rely on road and rail transport for access to domestic coal reserves which, as the recent storms have shown, can be easily disrupted by extreme weather events. Therefore, diversifying its energy supply and replacing coal with lower-carbon fuel sources produced throughout the country would enhance China’s energy security while reducing its contribution to climate change. Hence, as China looks to expand its energy infrastructure in coming years, climate security concerns should be examined hand in hand with energy security concerns. 

 

The Pew Center on Global Climate Change is a non-profit, independent organisation based in Arlington, Virginia. Their website is here: http://www.pewclimate.org/


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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

雪灾的警示

这场雪灾对于中国政府来说,既是祸也是福。雪灾造成了人员伤亡和重大的损失,但同时也暴露了中国在应对极端天气变化,或更广泛的说,对气候变化适应能力的缺陷。这是发生在中国相对富庶和发达的区域,当地政府有较好的条件应对紧急状况,仍然造成了这么大的影响,如果发生在相对不发达的地区,影响和损失有可能会更大。皮尤中心提出的能源供应多样化的建议只是气候变化适应能力建设的一部分。中国政府已经在应对气候变化的减排方面有了比较明确的想法和目标,但是在适应能力建设方面还需要步子迈得再大一些,这也应该是未来发展中国家之间进行气候合作的重点。

The lesson from the snowstorm

For Chinese government, this snowstorm may be a blessing in disguise. Despite the human casualties and property loss caused by the snow chaos, it showed to us that China lacks proper capacity to deal with extreme weather events, or broadly speaking, adapt to climate change. This time the snowstorm struck prosperous and developed areas where the local governments are largely well equipped to deal with the condition, yet the impact is still enormous. Had it hit underdeveloped regions, the loss and impact could be even worse. The proposal for diversifying energy supply by the Pew Center is just part of the plan for climate change response. Chinese government has worked out some clear vision and targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It needs to step up its effort in climate change adaptation, which will be the focus of climate cooperation between developing countries in the future.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

蓝天

环保是千秋大业—今天温总理说

不然雪灾和“非典”就是前车。。。

Blue Sky

The most important task for us is to protect our environment - says Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. Snow disaster and SARS are lessons we should learn from.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

为什么人类越来越脆弱?

科技越来越发达,但我发现人却越来越脆弱。我记得小时候,没有自来水,经常停电,但从来没有恐惧过,因为河水、篝火可以让我们生存无忧。可是如今,任何突如其来的灾难,只要持续几天,那我们的生存都要受到威胁:如果停水,哪里可以找到可以暂时饮用的水源?如果停电,我怎能吃饭?如果停气....?

Why are we vulnerable than ever before?

Despite the advancement of science and technology, I have found that mankind has become ever more vulnerable. When I was a small child, I was never afraid of electricity failure or lack of tap water, as we could survive on river water and bonfire. However, any unexpected interruption today, if it lasts for days, will pose serious threat to our survival. If mains-water supply fails, where can we obtain drinking water? If electricity is cut off, how can we cook? What would happen, if heating fails?

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

什么叫应对气候变化?

面对气候变化,不是靠减排就能对付的,更为重要的适应。很多人认为如果我们减排了,我们就能重新拥有以前的气候系统——一个我们早已适应的气候系统。但是的确是这样吗?我们可能要经过几十年、上百年时间才能把二氧化碳减到我们满意的水平,这期间我们的种种活动,自然界的种种变化,都可能使我们再也回不到以前的气候系统了。现在的农业地区不再适合耕作,海边沙滩将被淹没而又来不及再次形成沙滩,这一切都将不是我们现在的模样。我们应该把更多的关注放到如何适应即将到来的气候系统变化,而不光是减排,这才是应对。像去年中国南方雪灾这种事可能还会有很多,难道就减减排就可以了么,不,远远不够。
loyi

What about adapting to climate change?

Adapting to the forthcoming climate system change is more effective in solving the problems caused by climate change than merely depending on reducing emissions. Many people believe that if we can bring down emissions, we will be able to regain the climate system that we already got used to. However, is this true? We may have to go through decades or hundreds of years until the emissions of carbon dioxide can be reduced to our satisfactory level. And there is a possibility that we might lost our previous climate system forever because of different activities of mankind and varies changes in nature during all these years----agricultural areas were not suitable for farming, and the beach were flooded and could not be reformed in time----the sceneries that we are not familiar with. Therefore, rather than merely focus on reduction of emissions, more attention should be given to how to make it adaptable to the change of the coming climate system. Disasters like Snowstorms that struck the southern part of china last year may happen a lot in the future, should reducing emissions be effective enough to tackle all the problems that come along? The answer is no, not even close.