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气候变化:非洲的威胁是什么?

非洲是一个导致气候变化的极小因素。但瑞切尔•欧登果指出说, 非洲正遭受着气候变化所带的极大影响。现在是采取平衡发展措施来帮助贫穷国家应对全球变暖的时候了。
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《联合国气候变化框架公约》第十二次会议目前正在肯尼亚首都内罗毕召开,会期为2006年11月6日到17日。来自180多个国家的代表聚集在这里,就气候变化这个人类所面临的最大威胁进行讨论。政府间气候变化专门委员会指出,非洲将成为受气候变暖影响最大的大陆,而最大的原因就是人类活动。但是,在围绕气候变化的讨论中,非洲能扮演什么角色呢?

几乎所有的非洲国家都签署并且批准了《气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》。但是,受气候变化影响最严重的依然是非洲大陆。环保运动者们认为世界各国政府应该对此负责,因为他们没有采取足够的措施来降低其温室气体排放水平。无法有效地治理温室气体排放已经在非洲许多国家造成了恶性后果,如缺水、干旱、持续的洪水以及其他灾难。

今年,肯尼亚有一段时间极度干旱。成千上万人失去了他们的财产,还有一些人失去了生命。肯尼亚一直没有从1997年那场可怕的大洪水中恢复过来,雪上加霜的是,气象学家指出,来年肯尼亚很可能还会遭受厄尔尼诺现象引起的大洪水。肯尼亚山和乞力马扎罗山的积雪以史无前例的速度溶化,引起了当地的缺水。疟疾在过去并未流行过的高地地区也增多了。

位于肯尼亚西北部的图尔卡纳地区是世界上最为干旱、卫生条件也最为恶劣的地区,这里已经感受到了气候变化对肯尼亚的冲击了。但是图尔卡纳人已经适应了严酷的环境,在这里过着田园牧歌式的生活。在下一个雨季到来之前的漫长的九个月里,他们不断迁移,寻找泉水和牧场来喂养牲畜。他们把雨季称为“阿基皮洛”,在3月到6月之间会随时到来。但是,今年的“阿基皮洛”却不足以让牧场完全恢复,泉水的水量也减少了。牛津饥荒救济委员会肯尼亚项目的经理格扎汉•科伯德说,肯尼亚北部的大部分居民点没有能力应对反常的天气情况,“对于肯尼亚北部的人们来说,干旱比任何旷日持久的冲突更具毁灭性”。但是,下雨的时候,原本严重干旱的地区又会变成洪水滔滔。


Effects of drought seen in Namibia, southern Africa

Mike

肯尼亚市民团体在其最近的一次论坛上指出,尽管非洲国家自身还远未实现工业化,却要遭受由那些工业化国家的“奢侈排放”所造成的后果。比如,非洲气候网络的格雷丝•阿库姆认为:“在(联合国气候变化框架公约)会议上,我们不想要那些转移注意力的措施。当非洲人民因为工业国家的奢侈排放而生命垂危的时候,我们只需要切实的解决办法。”她又补充说,“这是一个事关生死的问题。”

要达成一个更加公平的气候变化协议,还有许多工作要做。 “清洁发展机制”(CDM)被认为能够促进可持续发展以及针对贫穷国家的平等性,在讨论起其实施情况时,阿库姆觉得非洲很失望,她说:“截至今年9月,非洲只有五个(CDM)项目,而其他500个项目全在欧洲和其他拉美及亚洲发展中国家。”她认为非洲国家政府应该带头反对类似的不平等发展项目。

联合国“千年发展目标”中的关键目标之一,就是在2015年之前将世界的饥饿人口减少一半。但是有人担心气候变化会使这个目标成为泡影。那些全球气候变暖的主要元凶应该提供资源,帮助那些受害最重的地方适应状况。但是,责任不应该只放在那些富裕国家手中,就像基督教会联合会的杰西·姆干比所说的:“我们的气候已陷入了灾难,这是我们赖以生存的,但也是我们的责任。尽管应该由工业化国家来担负这个责任,但我们也有责任来处理陪伴我们的全球变暖问题。”姆干比说,在2012年《京都议定书》到期之后,无论达成什么协议,其中都应该包括提供特别基金帮助脆弱地区适应气候变化的条款。他认为,帮助这些地区进行改造,不是一个慈善问题,而是公平问题。由于发达国家是在牺牲他国的基础上进行发展的,因此只有对那些因为他们而遭难的最贫困国家进行补偿,才显公平。

基督教援助组织的安德鲁•彭德勒顿告诉我,英国的环保运动者们正在向英国政府施加压力,要求为工业化国家的温室气体排放给贫穷国家造成的危害进行补偿。他说,“托尼·布莱尔应该把他所承诺的款项和政策落到实处”。彭德勒顿还说,工业化国家应该支持贫穷国家发展清洁和低碳技术。

尽管为了让非洲参与到气候政治中作了许多努力,但非洲气候变化措施的落实却进展甚微。非洲国家现在应该带头,在公众领域里赋予气候变化应有的重要性。


瑞切尔•欧登果是肯尼亚广播公司的记者

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匿名 | Anonymous

中国和非洲

最近的中非论坛的北京峰会给我相当深刻的印象,其中有很多关于投资的内容。但是这篇文章告诉我们非洲需要的是就气候变化采取紧急行动,否则任何经济上的得益都将一扫而空。中国对非洲的援助中有没有加入环境和气候变化条件?中国有没有强调非洲国家进行好的监管以确保有效的措施真正被实行?钱和投资都是好事,但是它们只会流到非洲那些腐败的领导人口袋里,除非资助方和投资方能严格监控。

China and Africa

The recent China Africa summit in Beijing was very impressive and there was a grat deal of talk about investment. But this article shows that what Africa needs is urgent action on climate change. Otherwise any economic gains will be wiped out. Is China building in environmental and climate change conditions to the aid to Africa? Is China insisting on good governance in Africa so that effective measures can be implemented? Money and investiment are good, but they will just go into the pockets of corrupt leaders in Africa unless there is serious oversight on the part of the donors and investors.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

中国又该怎么治?

这篇文章传达了一个明确的观点,发达国家需要帮助贫穷而脆弱的非洲国家更好的去适应气候变化的大环境。相比之下,对于中国这样一个世界工厂,这样一个既被指责排污又同时被污染困扰着的国家,发达国家要怎么去医治呢?中国现在的困扰究竟该怪谁?今天在中国发生的一切真的会在半个或者一个世纪以后发生在非洲么?

How about the remedy for China?

This article represents a clear idea that developed countries need to help poor and vulunerable African nations better adapt to climate change. In comparison, what are developed countries' remedies for China, which, as a global factory,is blamed for emissions and meanwhile suffers largely from the pollution. Who should be actually blamed for China's sufferings? Will it be true that what happens to China today will happen to Africa in half a or a century?

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

给气候变化特别的补偿吗?

给予遭到气候变化影响的市民那特别的基金, 听来似乎是一单滑稽的交易, 是值得争论的。那该如何断定这环境问题是由 “全球性气候变化” 所造成的, 或者单只是任何对地球的气侯有负面影响, 而我们还未能理解的因素呢? 令人可悲的是, 一些国家譬如中国,可能在排放贸易制度上受惠, 协助缓和气候变化, 然而, 非洲国家却无法同行一致以达到减排。最好的理由是别对排放贸易制度抱有太大的希望。Jess - 纽约

Special compensation for climate change?

Special funds to groups affected by climate change sounds like a tricky business, worth some debate. How can it be determined whether a given environmental problem is due to "global climate change"--or is that now just a label for anything bad that happens to the earth's climate that we don't understand? It is a sad irony that countries like China may benefit from emissions trading schemes, helping to pay for their adaptation to climate change... while African nations will not be able to, not having emissions yet to cut. A good reason not to base too much on emission trading schemes.

-Jess, New York

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

非洲的黄金时间!!

与中国和其他亚洲的发展中国家相比,非洲国家是幸运的。对非洲国家来说,从引进西方投资刺激发展中得到的教训尤其是在环境保护方面的教训,中国是一个活生生的例子。虽然非洲国家要赶上目前中国发展的步伐还需要很长的一段时间,但是希望他们不要步中国在吸引海外投资刺激经济发展却忽视环境保护的后尘。希望非洲的国家能够警惕那些将会潜在或者彻底的引起非洲丰富的资源损失或破坏的西方投资。我想对非洲人民说:抓住机会但是不要失去控制!

Prime time for Africa!!

Compared with China and other developing countries in Asia, African nations are much lucky. China is a living example for Africa to learn lessons from the development fuelled by the investment from the West, especially in the environment protection. Though there is still a long way for African nations to go to match up to the advancement of current China, but hopefully they will not follow the steps of China to attract overseas investment to fuel its economy without enough attention to its environment. Hopefully African countries are wary of investment from the West which will potentially and desperately lead to the plunder and damage of rich resouces in Africa.

I want to say to Afrian people:
Grasp the opportunties but not lose your control! --- DD

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

给予缓和气候变化和排放贸易制度的专门基金

首先, 缓和气候变化专门基金与排放贸易并非相似, 两者都不属于是一种补偿!一些面对日益严重气候变化的发展中国家, 由于受到科技和经济方面的拘束, 这项专门基金是为了协助它们提高抗击气候变化的能力而设的。防洪措施、有干旱抗性的作物及改善水和食物供应等,都是这项专门基金的宗旨。排放贸易则是另一种方法来协助减低对碳排放量的成本。然而, 这还需要关键性的条件以达到要求的效果, 首先, 未必是令人满意。尽管难以达到欧盟排放贸易制度所规定, 我无可否认这对将来减低碳排放量有所贡献。但是,怎么样和几时将这市场扩大至发达国家, 毕竟还是个未知数。具有讽刺意味的是, 此项碳排放贸易制度自从70年代开始由美国发起, 以抗击二氧化硫(SO2)排放和酸雨。显然地, 美国环境保护署(EPA)相信这是一项非常成功的政策, 许多经济学家和政治家都有同感。

special fund for climate change adaptation and emission trading scheme

First of all, the special fund for climate change adaptation is not something similar to emission trading, and neither of them is compensation at all! The special fund is set to help increasing the ability of adaptation in developing countries which are specially vulnerable facing the consequences of climate change due to technological and economic constraints. Flood defense, drought resistant crops and improving their access to water & food etc., are all objectives of the special funds. Emission trading is another instrument which helps to reduce the cost of carbon emission reduction. To work well, this needs some critical conditions which is not necessarily satisfied at the first place. Despite the difficulties met in the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), I have not doubt this will make its contribution to carbon reduction in the future. But how and when to extend this market wider to include developing countries still remains question. Ironically, the emission trading scheme initiated from US at the beginning, to combat the SO2 emission and acid rain since 1970s. Apparently, the US environment protection agency (EPA) believes it is a very successful policy instrument, so do many economists and politicians.

Tao Wang
Sussex Energy Group & Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

非洲会受惠的方式

”令人可悲的是, 一些国家譬如中国,可能在排放贸易制度上受惠, 协助缓和气候变化, 然而, 非洲国家却无法同行一致以达到减排。最好的理由是别对排放贸易制度抱有太大的希望”。这论点中有个错误。正是因为非洲国家的排放量比世界别国的少极了,他们能够将剩余的碳排放售给美、中等排放量最多的国家。如此,他们会得到财务收入来推动其未来的发展。那么,这当然依靠我们“世界领袖”在世界各国如何分配许可证。

How Africa can benefit

"It is a sad irony that countries like China may benefit from emissions trading schemes, helping to pay for their adaptation to climate change... while African nations will not be able to, not having emissions yet to cut. A good reason not to base too much on emission trading schemes."

There is a mistake in the discussion here. Just because African nations now have much lower carbon emission than the other countries, they will be able to sell out their surplus carbon emission permits to the world biggest emitters such as US and China. In this way they receive the financial revenue for their further development. But of course, this really depends on how our "world leaders" allocate the permits among the countries.

Tao Wang
Sussex Energy Group & Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

回复: 非洲受惠的方式

谢谢您的澄清。然而, 对于排放许可证的分配, 其基本原则又是指什么呢? 同时, 怎样防止非洲国家认为出售排放额的利润是可观的, 就打个比方说, 制造业和建筑业? 至少目前中国看来是“清洁发展机制”下的其中一个主要受惠国,而只需要付诸少数类似在非洲的计划。

Re: How Africa can benefit

Thanks for the clarification, Tao. But what is meant to be the basis for allocation of permits? And what is to prevent African nations from finding the sale of credits to be more lucrative than, say, factory construction? It seems at present like China is one of the major beneficiaries of CDMs at least, with only a handful of projects in Africa.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

CDM需要更好的投资环境

清洁发展机制(CDM),是一种进行特殊生产的投资,这种机制下,工业化国家可以购买并使用经核证的减排量(CER)。为什么中国现在比非洲有更多CDM项目,为什么越来越多的外国投资者相继到中国而不是非洲从事制造业以及其他方面的建设,在我看来,这两种情况发生的原因是相似的。尤其是,CDM项目的排放量,需要获得执行理事会的认可,这个理事会根据《联合国气候变化框架公约》成立。这就需要在CDM项目国家之间有一个可靠的投资环境和稳定的政策形势。CDM项目不仅仅由政府投资,许多项目是私人资本投资的,他们总是追求最大利润和长期的良好回报。CDM项目也要求收益国家的能力建设。我想,大量“中国制造”的商品也许有助于回答这个问题,尽管这种情况无论对世界还是对中国本身都不是那么好的。二氧化碳排放许可证与CDM不同,能够在排放贸易制度中进行贸易,但经核证的减排量(CER)又是由CDM产生的。要分配许可证,一个办法就是人均分配工业二氧化碳的排放权,而不是现在总是逐渐移向远期的目标,这就是“紧缩与趋同”(C&C)。我不是这方面的专家,也知道许多人有不同的看法,但至少这是一种可能。基本原则仍然没有取得认同,要在全球对排放贸易制度获得认同,还十分遥远。Tao Wang

CDM needs better investment environment

CDM, per se, is an investment to produce the special output, Certified Emission Reductions (CER), from the project that the industrialized country could buy and use for themselves. So the reasons why there are many CDM projects in China currently while much less in Africa, in my point of view, are similar to those why there are much more foreign investment flowing to China for manufacturing, constructions and everything else, rather less to Africa. In particular, the product of CDM project, the emission allowance, has to be certified by the CDM Executive Board (CDM EB) regulated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This requires a reliable and investment environment and stable political condition in the countries of CDM project. The CDM project is not only invested by government, many of them are invested through private capital, which always seeks for the maximized profit and promising return in the long term. The CDM project also requires capacity building in the beneficiary countries. I think the massive volume of goods "made in China" could help to answer this question, although this is not a so good phenomenon to the world, nor to China itself.

The allocation of carbon emission permit, again, is a different thing to CDM, but the CER generated by CDM, can be traded within the emission trading scheme. To allocate the permits, one of the ideas is to have an equally distributed carbon emission permit per capita, not now but gradually moving towards the target in the future. This is called Contraction & Convergence (C&C). I am not an expert of this and also know many people have different ideas. But at least this is one of the possibilities. The basic principle has not yet been agreed. The world also has not reached an agreement on the emission trading scheme itself, and how far it could reach.

Tao Wang

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匿名 | Anonymous

CDMs & 非洲

“目前看起来中国至少是CDM主要的收益国之一,非洲只有100个项目。”
个人投资者需要做以下工作:
1.你要找到一个排放量较少的工业项目。
2.你需要估算你将节约到少排碳量,并得到UNFCCC的认可。
3.你要投资减少排碳的设备。
4.你要收集排碳量降低的证明。
5.你可以出售它,比如在欧洲的贸易体系中。所以,你需要一个良好的投资环境。但是,你也需要已存在大量低效率的项目。因此,非洲这样工业化程度轻微的大陆比亚洲更难得到生产专利。Tony

CDMs & Africa

"It seems at present like China is one of the major beneficiaries of CDMs at least, with only a handful of projects in Africa"

The way it works fro private investors is as follows:
1. you find an industrial project that could be made to emit less
2. you get the UNFCCC to accept your methodology for calculating how much carbon you'll be saving
3. you invest in the kit that gives the saving
4. you collect your emmission reduction credit
5. you sell it, maybe on the European trading scheme.

So yes, you need a good climate for investment. But you also need lots of low-efficiency projects already in place. So a lightly industrialised continent like Africa will have fewer oportunities than Asia for generating credits.

Tony

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匿名 | Anonymous

大气“氧气枯竭”是比“全球温室效应”对人类持续健康生存造成更为严重危害的恶果

〔英籍华人〕陈一文〔[email protected]
中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会 顾问
中国灾害防御协会灾害史研究专业委员会顾问

编者按∶《第三届〔上海〕环保与新能源国际论坛》〔2006年10月30-31日,上海国际会议中心〕论文集收录发表了陈一文顾问该篇文章。

摘要∶揭示“能源与大气污染”综合复杂巨系统问题中世界绝大部分科学技术界人士以及所有企业界人士至今尚未认识的核心问题,指出矿物燃料与各种新型燃料的过量燃烧,不仅造成“温室效应à全球温暖”一种恶果,而且造成全球“温室效应à全球温暖”与大气“氧气枯竭”两种恶果;介绍地球大气中氧和二氧化碳的形成和变化;回顾地球历史中大气含氧量发生过重大波动及其对生物圈的巨大影响;揭示全球大气含氧量不断降低的科学证据;警告“氧气枯竭”问题的严重危害;揭示“氢能源、氢经济”严重加剧大气 “氧气枯竭”指出大城市与经济发达地区大气“氧气枯竭”问题最为严重!综述了西方医学专家、营养专家、生物化学家就缺氧对人类健康与疾病影响的结论性意见;提出大气“氧气枯竭”的科学定义与科学意义。强调《城市生活质量》的首位评价指标必须是包括含氧量水平的《城市空气质量》,揭示中国政府颁布的《大气环境质量标准》存在严重缺陷和片面性,呼吁中国《大气环境质量监测标准》必须增加对二氧化碳浓度与含氧量的监测。

Atmospheric “Oxygen Depletion” is an Even More Disastrous Consequence than the “Global Green House Effect” to the Continuance Healthy Survival of Mankind

(British) Chen I-wan ([email protected]) Advisor, Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction for China Geophysics Society Advisor, Comm. of Disaster Historical Studies for China Disaster Prevention Association Editor's note: This paper was published in the Collection of Papers distributed by The 3rd (Shanghai) Environment Protection & New Energy Forum (Oct. 30 - 31, 2006, Shanghai International Conference Center). Abstract: Reveals the core issue of the comprehensive complex massive system problem of “energy & atmospheric pollution” today is still unrecognized by most members of the world science and technology community and all members of the world industry: Excessive burning of fossil fuel and “new fuels” not only causes disastrous consequence of “green house effect à global warming”, but at the same time also cause another disastrous consequence of atmospheric “oxygen depletion”. Reviews the formation and changes of the oxygen and carbon dioxide contained in the Earth’s atmosphere; and the dramatic fluctuation of atmospheric oxygen content during the Earth’s history and serious effect on the biosphere; presents science evidence of continuance reduction of global atmospheric oxygen content; warns that “Hydrogen Energy, Hydrogen Economy” will more seriously cause atmospheric “oxygen depletion”. Stress that most serious atmospheric “oxygen depletion” problem exists in major cities and advance developed economic regions! Summarizes conclusive opinions by Western medical and nutrition experts, biochemists on the effects of lack of oxygen to human health and illnesses, proposes scientific definition and significance of atmospheric “oxygen depletion”. Emphasizes the top priority evaluation parameter of “city life environment quality” must be the “city atmosphere quality” including the atmospheric oxygen content level. Reveals the “Atmospheric Environment Quality Standard” issued by the Chinese Government contains serious error and limitation, call for the Chinese government to also include monitoring of atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen content to the “Monitoring Standard of Atmospheric Environment Quality” of China.