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中国畜牧业之患

全球暖化让中国饱受干旱之苦,粮食安全问题日益严重。米亚•麦克唐娜认为,在减排的同时,中国还需要改变对肉食的依赖。

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一场严峻的旱灾正在侵袭中国大部分地区。尽管近期情况已有所缓解,但位于小麦成产带中心的山东省,遭遇了两百年来最严重的旱情。受到威胁的不仅仅是小麦收成,还有农民的日常生活,农业牲畜,甚至是基本生存都受到威胁。

然而,随着全球温室气体排放的不断增加,类似的旱情在中国和世界其它地方可能会越来越严重和频繁。那么中国应当如何更加从容地面对这些情况呢?其中一个解决方案可以从中国迅猛发展的畜牧业中找到。

中国已经超过美国成为了世界上最大的肉鸡和肉猪生产国 ——每年的肉鸡生产量达数十亿只,肉猪生产量超过七亿头。中国还饲养了九百二十万头牛,这是世界上最大规模的牧群之一。此外,中国的肉鸭饲养量占世界的三分之二,肉鹅饲养量占世界的百分之九十。

中国的畜牧业对水和土地资源带来了新的压力,同时进一步导致了全球气候变化。如果畜牧业进一步扩张和产业化,这些压力将更加激化。

三月底的时候,我花了一个礼拜,到北京和上海的高校做关于全球畜牧业和气候变化的演讲。许多人对我演讲中列出的数据和问题并不了解。“气候变化与地球上每一个人息息相关,”上海环境科学研究员林卫青副院长称自己第一次从农业的角度来审视这个问题,“这些新的信息警示我们必须要有所行动。” 他继续讲到:“或许这意味着,我们要少吃肉,多种树。”

北京、上海的不乏认同畜牧业、气候和粮食安全三者息息相关的人,其中包括教授,学生,甚至一些制定政策的官员。但但大多数的人还是对此表示怀疑,担心这会对经济和低碳发展造成影响,也担心肉类在人们饮食结构中不可动摇的地位。

一位上海的教授告诉我:“这是一个全球性资本经济制度,这很有必要(集约化生产模式)。他继续谈到:“不这么做我们就会吃亏。”然而他也同意必须考虑畜牧业的衍生问题,如温室气体排放,水污染和土壤退化。北京的另一位教授则认为,中国人还不能像一些美国人那样放弃肉食品。

不过,复旦大学几位出席上海环境科学研究院演讲的学生决定对此展开研究,这将成为检验中国畜牧业温室气体排放量的第一手资料。对此,我感到非常欣慰,类似的挑战和机遇在中国比比皆是。

在过去的三十年中,中国在确保全国粮食安全上的工作成效斐然。但是,正如世界粮农组织的观点认为,规模化的牲畜养殖“将更多更直接地参与到稀缺的土地、水和其他自然资源的竞争中”。

中国现在每年将大约28.5%的谷物用于饲养牲畜,数量超过了三十年前的两倍。这种做法存在低效性:若将人类从食用谷物获取的等量卡路里,换成从食用肉类中获取,则需要用两到十倍的谷物来饲养提供肉类的牲畜。

牲畜业也是高耗水行业。联合国教科文组织最近的一项研究表明,全球百分之二十九的农业用水“与成产肉类食品有关”。研究人员还发现,畜牧业中百分之九十八的用水被用来生产谷物饲料,其中包括玉米、大豆和小麦等。

中国生产一吨饲料用小麦需要耗费四百五十五立方米的“蓝水”(地表和地下水)和八百三十九吨“绿水”(非径流的雨水)。虽然在世界教科文组织的统计中,中国的饲料用小麦耗水量并非全球最高(最高为澳大利亚),但仍然超过了印度、德国和埃及。

中国用来生产一吨饲料用玉米的“绿水”为七百九十一立方米,低于全球平均水平,但高于美国的五百二十三立方米。动物需要食用的饲料越多,耗水量自然越大。研究人员发现,生产肉类食品的耗水量总体上比生产粮食的耗水量大。

根据联合国教科文组织的报告结论,“……牲畜的生产和消费是耗尽和污染全球稀缺淡水资源的重要因素。”而这一结论也是中国的现状。

2010年,中国公布了有史以来最为严格的水污染调查报告,报告发现实际的污染度要远远高于之前的调查报告的水平(之前的调查没有计算多种农业污染源)。2010年的研究显示,仅农业污水排放就达到1320万吨——仅这一数字就相当于此前认为的水污染的总和。此前的报告显示,除去农药和化肥,中国水道的污水排放量为1380万吨。

当下的旱灾也引起了对农业用地流失的关注。中国的人均可用耕地仅为世界人均水平的三分之一,现有的四十七万平方英里(即一亿两千万公顷)的耕地面积,比确保中国粮食安全所需的最低耕地面积仅多七千平方英里(即一百八十万公顷)。

在这些可耕地当中,有五千万公顷(即一亿两千五百万英亩)的土地以及四亿人口(中国将近三分之一的人口)每年受到异常气候的影响。这个问题也与畜牧业有一定的联系。根据世界粮农组织的数据,畜牧业是温室气体的主要来源之一,占全球温室气体排放量的百分之十八。(而根据另外两位世界银行环境问题专家在美国世界观察研究所杂志上发表的研究,畜牧业的排放量比例更高,达百分之五十一。)中国是世界上最大的粪便沼气排放源,2004年的排放量约为三百八十四万吨,占世界排放量的五分之一以上。 

这个世界最大小麦生产国的产量危机引起了国际市场的震动。中国国内的食品成本已连续数月上升。世界银行最近警告说全球粮食价格正处于“危险水平”。包括异常的天气状况以及畜牧业产品需求和生产的不断增加在内的多种潜在趋势表明:食品价格和粮食安全将持续成为全球的关注焦点。

联合国教科文组织的报告指出:“在那些肉类食品消费迅速增长的国家,人们应当认真思考如何调节这种消费的增长。”中国的畜牧业对水和土地资源带来了新的压力,同时进一步导致了全球气候变化。如果畜牧业进一步扩张和产业化,这些压力将更加激化。

最近,由上海环境科学研究院低碳能源研究中心的一份盘点报告发现,上海市农业(包括市内大型畜牧设施)的问世气体排放量在步步攀升。这将成为未来几年上海生态足迹的一大部分。

干旱、资源稀缺以及食品的不安全是各国和国际社会共同面临的紧急问题。中国有机会可以采取大胆的措施,建立一个不依赖肉类食品的,可持续的和人道的食品体系。对于重视低碳经济在未来对整体经济发展的影响的中国来说,这一模式将能发挥显著的作用。


米亚·
麦克唐娜Brighter Green (www.brightergreen.org) 的执行总监。Brighter Green是总部位于纽约的公共政策的行动智库,致力于研究环境和食品安全问题。她同时也是总部设于美国的世界观察研究所 (www.worldwatch.org) 的高级研究员。

图片来自gyhgyh

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bob1234

治标不治本

在野外放养的动物是生态营养系统的关键部分,也是膳食中肉类部分的来源。每吨粮食都需要更多水,消耗更多富含碳和营养的土壤。如果不保护土壤、水、植被、空气等最基本的资源或寻找替代资源,国家和整个地球都无法承受对这些资源的消耗。
我们现在做的很简单,就是按照主要计划,将大气中的二氧化碳注入沙漠,通过微生物、动植物(如蜜蜂)活动恢复土壤及其储碳量。下一步我们要在恢复国内外土壤、碳和树木的同时,开始食物和饲料的种植。我们可以养活全世界。
2014年前每年减少10亿吨二氧化碳将会让我们有更多的时间和金钱利用清洁能源,例如在中国技术已经非常先进的化学计量贮氢(一种可完全燃烧的氢燃料气体)。所以让我们致力于减少二氧化碳这项全球的事业吧,重新开始碳循环和微量元素循环。我们将会看到当发达国家挽救他们的银行家时,所谓的发展中国家领导在挽救这些基本资源。未来历史学家的笔已经准备好了。

此评论由张晓菲翻译

Treating symptom as opposed to Cure

Animals grazed in the field are a critical part of eco- nutrient system and meat integral part of diet. Crops per tonne demand more water and certainly exhaust the soil of nutrient and carbon. The nation and planet can no longer keep consuming the baseline assets soil water vegetation atmosphere without replacing repair restoring such assets.
Simply with the very correct master plan we lower CO2 into deserts to build soil soil-carbon and elements with microbic activities flora and fauna bees etc as we are currently doing. The forward plan we will grow food fodder and in time as we restore soil carbon trees native / exotic. We can fed the world
The mass lowering of CO2 1 billion tonnes annually by 2014 will give us time and money to implement non polluting energy such as stoictiometric hydrogen which PRC is well advanced with. So let us dedicate a global undertaking of addressing lowering CO2 that will restart the Carbon Cycle rain and trace element cycles. We will see so called developing nations leading developed nation in restoring the assets while developed nations restore their bankers.The historian of tomorrow have pens poised.
Robert Vincin

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martinrowe

重要的话题

米亚·麦克唐纳好样的,能提出这么重要的话题,这是所有国家都必须考虑的。

An important topic

Kudos to Mia MacDonald for raising an important subject, one that all countries need to address.

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meter

是的,全球一起行动起来减少畜牧业救自己救地球

由于几十年来中国一直学习发达国家的生活方式,把肉食当作是时尚与富贵的象征,因此更激发了畜牧业的急剧扩张,中国人把自己崇尚植物性饮食及简约生活的传统都差不多丢光了,现在发达国家错误的饮食所带来的灾难也正在中国上演...而最为严重的是社会上仍然充斥着不良的文化侵袭着人们紧张脆弱的大脑!而人们还不知道这些灾难来自哪里?
所以很感谢米亚女士对中国畜牧业以及环境的研究与调查分析,有时候旁观者清,自己反而看不清楚危险来自哪里,我们需要真实的资讯让更多的人们了解...

Global action!

Throughout the past few decades, China has studied the lifestyles of developed countries. Meat has become a symbol of fashion and wealth, spurring a drastic expansion of the livestock sector.Chinese who used to enjoy a vegetarian diet and a simple life have pretty much abandoned their traditions. Disasters triggered by developed countries‘ incorrect eating habits are continuously coming to the fore. What's worse, the bad culture prevailing in our society is infecting people's vulnerable minds!Yet they don't even know where these disasters come from. I would like to extend my thanks to ms Mia MacDonald for her research and analysis of China's livestock sector and environment. Onlookers will see things more clearly sometimes than we ourselves, who instead sometimes fail to be aware of where dangers come from. Therefore, we should make more people understand better with more authentic information.

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gerard

人口过剩危险

感谢你写这个重要话题。
有人将我们现在的环境气候危机归咎于人口过剩。这没错,但真正的问题不是人类的,而完全是由我们人为创造的牲畜的数量所造成的。现在牲畜以惊人的8比1的比例超过了野生物种的数量——有一项研究更是假设当下的家畜的数目是恐龙的6倍!也就是说这个星球上的每个人对应10只家畜——奶牛、猪、山羊、绵羊、鸡等等。2005年,联合国环境规划署预计,如果我们将喂食给家畜的粮食自己使用,那么我们将有50%的粮食富余。

Dangerous overpopulation

Thank you for writing on this important topic.

Population has been blamed for our current climate and environmental crisis. This is true, but the real problem is not humans: it is the totally artificial population of livestock we have created. Livestock now outweigh wildlife by an astonishing 8:1 - one study puts the current consumption of livestock at 6 times that of the dinosaurs! For ever person on the planet there are 10 livestock animals - cows, pigs, goats, sheep, chickens etc. Back in 2005 the UNEP estimated that if we stopped feeding grain to animals and instead we ate it ourselves, we would have a 50% grain surplus.

Articles like these make us realise we have created a hungry monster that is drinking our water, messing our environment, heating our climate and giving us diseases. We can tame this monster very quickly just by changing to a more plant-based diet. We must change the attitude that feeding meat to the family is good - it is the opposite. There are now many tasty nutritious plant alternatives - why not give it a go!

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susant

一篇十分有思想的文章

谢谢米亚•麦克唐纳写了这篇表达清晰的文章。我不同意bob1234,因为肉不是饮食必须的一部分,家畜不是生态系统必须的一部分。实际上,它们是放错了位置的生态多样性,速度比任何人类活动所造成的错位的生态多样性都要快。当地的动物才是生态系统所需要的一部分。就像荷兰环境评估机构在报告里指出的“改变饮食结构的气候收益”,如果我们采用全球素食饮食,我们可以解放更多的土地(因为如果人们吃素,更少的土地和水就可以养活更多的人),我们可以种上树,这些树在2050年会在减少二氧化碳排放上发挥重要作用,这样我们可以减少缓和气候变化80%的成本。世界保护基金会在发布一份报告后指出家畜是世界上排放人为甲烷、炭黑、地面臭氧的首要来源,这些都被很快地释放出大气。这份报告使更为素食的饮食结构更加强烈。所以我们能通过一个素食饮食来快速地为地球降温。

此评论由梁迎翻译。

Very Well Thought Out Article

Thank you Ms. McDonald for your well-articulated article. I'd like to disagree with bob1234, because meat does not need to be a part of the diet and livestock don't need to be a part of the ecosystem. In fact, they are displacing biodiversity at a rate greater than any other single human caused activity. It is these native animals that need to be a part of the ecosystem.

Furthermore, as the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency pointed out in their report "Climate Benefits of Changing Diet," if we adopt a global vegan diet, we would free up so much land (because you can feed more people on less land and water if people eat vegan),we would be able to replace trees, which by 2050 would play such a significant effect on the reduction of CO2 that we could reduce the cost of mitigating climate change by 80%.
The case for eating a more vegan diet is made even stronger by the World Preservation Foundation, which published a report pointing out that livestock are the world's number one source of anthropogenic methane, black carbon and ground level ozone -- all of which dissipate out of the atmosphere very quickly - so we could cool the planet very quickly with a vegan diet.

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jiaxu

畜牧业与健康

其实中国几千年来都是以植物性食物为主的。随着改革开放,中国从国外学了很多好的东西。但也学了很多不健康的,比如肉食和牛奶。早已有无数研究证明动物性食物是造成几乎所有慢性疾病的原因。现在美国越来越多的人都在学习中国以前的清淡饮食,我们却拣来人家丢掉的坏习惯。

常春藤康乃尔大学的营养学系系主任,终身教授考林坎贝尔教授的书《中国健康调查报告》(China Study)是美国最畅销的书之一。有一本流到了克林顿手上,结果他很快吃素了。这之前他已经作了至少两次心脏搭桥(2004, 2010),如果不素大概就要玩儿完了。该书介绍的就是坎贝尔教授在中国多个城市做的二十年的跟踪调查。之所以在中国做这个调查,是因为中国当时的人口流动性不大,地区性疾病和饮食有明显特点。结果发现动物性饮食与慢性病的直接联系。他最近新的研究表明,那些原本多半吃素的慢性病地发区,随着“富起来”,开始增大动物性饮食,同时慢性病的发病率也逐年升高。前一阵央视还播放了采访他的节目。

Livestock industry and health

Actually China has revolved around a plant-based diet for thousands of years. As it opened up and began reform, China has learned a lot of good things from other countries, but also a lot of unhealthy things, such as meat and dairy consumption. There have already been countless studies proving that animal products are the cause of almost all chronic diseases. Right now there are more and more Americans adopting the light diet that the Chinese used to have, but we ended up picking up the bad habits they tossed away.

The China Study, written by Cornell University's Professor Emeritus of Nutritional Biochemistry Dr. Colin Campbell, is one of America's bestselling books. When it reached President Clinton's hands, he quickly became vegetarian. Before that, he already had at least two heart bypass surgeries (2004, 2010), so it probably would have been the beginning of the end for him if he hadn't become vegetarian. This book introduces Dr. Campbell's survey across many Chinese cities over 20 years. He conducted the study in China because at the time the Chinese population wasn't very mobile, so there were obvious characteristics in regional disease and diet that could be observed. The results showed that there is a direct correlation between animal consumption and chronic disease occurrence. His recent research indicates that as areas with predominantly plant-based diets became wealthier and increased their animal consumption, incidence rates of chronic disease in those areas increased simultaneously. CCTV aired an interview of Dr. Campbell a while back.

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jiaxu

关于奶制品

还应该说说的是牛奶。广告里说奶能补钙。奶里确实有钙。但科学研究早就证明,奶制品造成骨质疏松有很大联系。全世界的统计数字表明,骨质疏松的发病率与乳制品的摄入有很高的相关性。对人群的研究也发现牛奶的摄入导致骨骼的钙的流出。可能是动物蛋白提高血液酸度所致。所以随着牛奶广告的增多,中国人也开始越来越听到骨质疏松这个曾经陌生的医学词汇。

奶制品也是造成美国肥胖症高发的主要原因之一,因为奶制品里最主要的是脂肪(50%-80%),当然还有从饲料里来的荷尔蒙,抗生素,和大量农药。

Regarding dairy products

What we should also talk about is milk. Advertisements say that milk can supplement calcium. Milk contains calcium indeed. But scientific research has long ago proven that there is a strong relationship between dairy consumption and osteoporosis. Statistics around the world indicate that incidence of osteoporosis is highly correlated with dairy intake. Population studies have also discovered that milk intake causes calcium loss from bone, possibly because animal protein increases blood acidity levels. So as advertisements for milk become more prevalent, Chinese people are also starting to hear more and more of osteoporosis, a once unfamiliar medical term.

Because the main component of dairy products is fat (50%-80%), dairy is also one of the main reasons for high obesity rates in the US. Of course there are also the hormones in the feed, antibiotics, and large amounts of pesticides.

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kitty

为经济发展牺牲道德

畜牧业对环境的破坏是既定的事实,但政府避而不谈
现在身边的朋友真正视肉如命的人很少,如果政府引导媒体宣传,相信很多人会从旧习里醒过来,过一种更积极健康的生活

Sacrificing ethics for economic growth

The livestock industry's damage to the environment is an established truth, but the government avoids the topic. Right now there are very few people who are completely dependent on meat to survive, so if the government guides the media to publicize the issue, I believe a lot of people will wake up from their old habits and start adopting a more positive and healthy lifestyle.

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joshua

实施

中国应该跟上全球步伐 尽快倡导蔬食 环保理念 并立刻付诸行动!

implementation

China should keep up with the rest of the world in advocating a vegetarian diet, raising people's awareness of environmental protection and putting it into action as soon as possible!

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anumakonda

全球变暖和食品生产

一篇佳作。很多国家对因全球变暖造成的食品产量下降而深感忧虑。

A.Jagadeesh Nellore博士,(美联社)印度

Global Warming and Food Production

Excellent article. Yes. Many Nations are concerned on decline in Food Production which may be due to Global Warming.

Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India