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建立新能源经济

若富有国家引进“碳关税”制度,中国将如何应对?窦观一和蒋高明认为尽管像这样的关税制度并不公平,但中国政府在农村推展的行动将为绿色再生播下种子。

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G20峰会前,美国能源部长朱棣文称,如果其它国家没有实施温室气体强制减排措施,那么美国将开放征收碳关税(Carbon Tariff)。所谓碳关税,是指对高耗能的产品进口征收二氧化碳特别排放关税。如果欧、美、日等国家联合对中国征收碳关税的话,“中国制造”将丧失原来的低成本优势,上述国家将以碳关税的形式,将中国的财富堂而皇之地纳入自己的国库。这表面上是为了全球竞争的公平,实则扼住了中国经济发展的咽喉。什么时候征税、征多少,一切都在欧美国会的掌握之中,中国可以压低成本向全球销售产品,而他们有权决定中国该有多少财富。

实际上,上述做法是不公平的。发达国家在工业化发展的初始阶段,也走过了污染环境、高二氧化碳排放历程,且已经排放了两三百年,而中国的现代化不到50年。资本主义原始积累就是一个黑暗的掠夺加屠杀过程,先是本土的羊吃人运动,后到南美洲,北美洲,非洲掠夺,最后发展到贩卖黑奴,华工,发动鸦片战争,再到后来的八国联军入侵中国,这些历史清楚地记载着,西方国家的发达是建立在对落后国家掠夺基础上的。发达国家要求中国一步到位地与欧美实行同步的环境政策,是强人所难的。

中国当然不会支持碳关税与碳货币,这对于任何工业化进程中的生产大国都是无法接受的现实。因此,一旦美国征收碳关税,将引发一场灾难,引发一场贸易大战。中国在要求国际金融秩序改革的同时,必须看护好自己的后院,除建立内需市场以摆脱对畸形的外向型经济的依赖之外,发展本国的新能源体系是当务之急。面临发达国家的共同压力,中国要打破欧美之间的默契,出路有两条:要么全面理顺国内资源价格,促使国内企业尽快开发出节能环保的生产工艺;要么促使国外廉价资源流入中国,对中国优势企业形成隐性补贴。

过去30多年来,经济特区对中国发展起到了巨大的推动和示范作用。但是迄今为止,经济特区基本上属于工业化时代的“高碳经济”区,中国还没有一个真正意义的“低碳经济”区。建立碳货币交易特区,破解碳货币勒索,已迫在眉睫。下面我们以新能源汽车为例,来看看中国应对碳贸易勒索的可能前景。

2007年,中国太阳能电池产量突破了1000兆瓦,居世界第一,但因原材料、销路等都严重依靠进口,光伏发电市场尚未得到充分开发。太阳能光伏产业对外依存度高达90%以上,在国际金融危机的影响下,整个光伏电池产业损失惨重。再看看另外一组数据,中国农村农用车和拖拉机的保有量超过2000万辆,摩托车保有量4000万辆,远高于城市。然而,那些被交警部门称为“五小车辆”的农用车是高污染的。大力发展太阳能电站,实现由光伏制造大国向应用大国的战略转型,大幅度将环保和安全性能很差的农用车替换成适合城乡使用的生态型汽车,才是化解“碳货币勒索”的最有利武器。

2009年,中国政府已安排50亿元人民币,对农民报废的三轮汽车和低速货车换购轻型载货车、购买1.3升以下微型客车,给予一次性财政补贴。然而,只有当汽车不再是农民的奢侈品而是生产生活必需品的时候,才是“汽车下乡”的真正开始。随着轻型电动车的迅猛发展,目前中国轻型电动车的保有量已突破5000万辆,仅仅10年就发展成了规模巨大的产业。在此基础上,可以发展一个具有中国特色的电动汽车产业,发展那种最高车速50公里,整车重量小于500公斤,每百公里耗电10度,电费5元,直接经济成本小于2万元,适合中国国情的“电动汽车”。

目前中国与汽车相关产业的就业人数,已占就业总人数的17%。大力发展中国特色的电动汽车,是扩大内需和就业,引领中国率先冲出国际金融危机的关键选择。中国科技部正争取经过4到5年的时间,将汽车产量中的10%(约100万辆)转变为新能源汽车。若是推出以新能源汽车替换农用车的优惠措施,将能极大地增加汽车销量,拉动国内车市。其实,仅将报废的1000万辆农用车换购成生态型、城乡兼用、能够干农活的电动汽车,就可以新增2000万人就业,拉动消费2000亿元。

然而,目前中国电动汽车一直让煤电牵着鼻子走,大规模地采用电动汽车立即面临发电问题。如果用煤炭发电,根据欧盟联合研究中心报告,温室气体排放将比使用燃油增加至少一倍。因此,用煤电的新能源汽车,是比“高碳”的燃油汽车高一倍的“高高碳”汽车。当前,财政部计划到2010年将投入200多亿元生产的100万辆新能源汽车,竟然是“高高碳”的“煤电”汽车!太阳能和风能没有污染,风电场在夜间可以产生大量的富余电,两者非常适合为电动汽车充电。用太阳能或风能并网电力取代火电站是新能源汽车大规模应用和低碳经济发展的关键所在。

美国奥巴马政府提出以智能超导电网、节能汽车、风能、沙漠太阳能等为核心的7870亿美元巨额经济刺激计划,把发展新能源经济作为摆脱经济衰退、创造就业机会、抢占未来发展制高点的重要战略产业;中国的重中之重是解决“三农”问题,用农村需求代替美国的个人消费需求。发展新能源汽车的首要任务,是将环保和安全性能很差的农用车替换成适合农村使用的绿色能源车。中国有良好的轻型电动车产业基础,这个基础绝对是世界第一的。然而,中国许多城市由于拥挤,连电动自行车都要禁行,虽说城里人2万元的电动汽车买得起,但不是每个家庭都能拥有充电的车库,楼房充电又不方便。因此,低端电动汽车的大市场是在农村而不是在城市。

中国政府积极推广“汽车下乡”。如果推出城乡兼用“光电汽车”替换农用车的优惠措施,将会给中国汽车产业发展带来革命性的影响,不仅市场规模会剧增,而且将使汽车产业发展途径、产品结构、产销网络、产业资本构成发生重大变化,极大地增加汽车的销量,拉动国内汽车市场,有效摆脱碳货币勒索。


作者:窦观一,九三学社南通市委宣传部部长。

蒋高明,中国科学院植物研究所首席研究员、博士生导师,中国生态学会副秘书长、中国环境文化促进会理事。


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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

关税制度

当然,关税将是不公平的。但实话说,我看不到美国政府将在近期实施这样的制度。美中经济如此相互依赖,因此破坏与中国的友好关系无异于自杀。因此,我们只希望两国能利用这种相互依赖的关系来进行合作,共同开发低碳技术。

tariffs

Tariffs would, of course, be unfair. But in truth I cannot see any US administration introducing them in the near future. It would be suicidal to destroy Chinese goodwill given how interdependent the American and Chinese economies are.

Instead we can only hope that together they take advantage of interdependence to cooperate on development of low-carbon technologies.

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匿名 | Anonymous

关于轻型电动车的一点质疑

轻型电动车产业是否就是真正的绿色产业呢?是否有数据或模型论证过这样的产业发展对于资源、环境的影响?是否是从整个产业链考虑的,不能仅仅从电动车不排放二氧化碳来考虑。因为在汽车的生产、流通一系列过程中,涉及大量的装卸、搬运以及长距离运输活动,这些活动所消耗的能源是否纳入考虑范围?另外,汽车的报废和回收问题是否纳入考虑范围?轻型电动车=新能源经济?

Calling into question light-duty electric vehicles

Can the manufacturing and spread of light-duty electric vehicles really be considered as a new type of green industry? Has not data already extensively demonstrated the detrimental effects this industry has on our resources and environment? When considering electric vehicles as possible replacements for their heavy polluting, fossil-fuel-burning counterparts we should not just look at the fact that the vehicles themselves do not produce carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, we should take electric vehicles' entire production and supply chains into consideration. The assembling, handling and transporting of these vehicles also eats away at our already limited natural resources. The fact that electric vehicles require demolishing and recycling should also be kept in mind when thinking about them as greener solutions to our transportation needs. Does promoting the diffusion of light-duty electric vehicles really amount to taking a step closer to a new green economy?
Translated by Vanessa Liberson

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

到底哪个排放更多

上面提到的"用煤电的新能源汽车,是比“高碳”的燃油汽车高一倍的“高高碳”汽车。",不知道哪里有相关数据没有,到底同样行驶一百公里的电动车和燃油汽车哪个排放的二氧化碳更多(在把电力消耗都算在煤电的情况下)。一直想晓得此类数据,都没找到过。
Liu Guo

Which kind of vehicle produces higher carbon emissions?

The above-quoted "Running electric vehicles on coal power would result in double the greenhouse gas emissions of petrol- or diesel-powered vehicles.
Does the author have any data to back up this conclusion? Where is the relevant data available for the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles and fuel-powered vehicles for 100km’s travel respectively (calculating the electricity consumption of electric vehicles in terms of coal-generated electricity? I have been looking for such data, but haven't found it so far. – Liu Guo
(translated by Yang Bin)

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匿名 | Anonymous

城乡统筹科学发展新能源

窦观一:城乡统筹科学发展新能源

1、目前我国风电推进很快,但发展新能源,千万不要忘记农村。风力发电需要大量的土地,而沼气池、种植和养殖场可以建在风电场的地下和周边。建设“风力+沼气”电站,既节约土地和电力设施,又可以减少投资,达到“新能源工业反哺农业”,城市支持农村的效果。
3、电动车蓄电池组完全占据了后排空间,价格也是普通汽车的2.5倍。50升一箱汽油可驱动小型轿车轻松跑上600公里;而电动车电池组起码一两吨重,且工作时产生的高温足以把乘客烤糊。因此提供一次充电可续航600公里4倍于电动车的“倍增车”迫在眉睫。
4、大规模采用电动汽车还面临一个电池回收的问题。每一辆电动汽车需要消耗15公斤锂,替代燃油汽车每年消耗100万吨锂。而2007年全世界锂产量仅2.5万吨。
5、焚烧秸秆是长期得不到解决的“老大难”问题。联合国粮农组织报告说:“导致全球环境恶化的最主要因素有二至三个,家畜是其中之一”。10.5亿头牛排放的二氧化碳占全球总量的18%,污染程度甚于汽车尾气。如利用3亿吨秸秆制造“减少牛羊废气排放的饲料”(菊芋、甜高梁)可减排温室气体,节约粮食0.5~1.2亿吨,相当于增加0.5~1.2亿亩“吨粮田”。
6、我国每年的畜禽粪便约30亿吨,是农村主要的污染源,若在风电场下种植菊芋、甜高梁等能源作物和养殖场开发沼气,取代液化气,让风电场的荒地变成“天然气矿”“生物燃料”和“有机肥厂”,可替代燃煤发电和汽车用油。
7、由于大量施用化肥,加速排放了二氧化碳和甲烷。单一施用化肥的地块,排放的甲烷是化肥配施猪粪地块的3倍,是不施肥地块的27倍。沼气和养殖场可以在风电场和瘠薄的地方做,且大量沼渣替代化肥,不但减排了温室气体,还将国家大量的中低产田提升。
9、2003年,美国在芝加哥“气候交易所”挂牌营业。奥克兰市和交易所有权向那些守信用的其他入盟企业出售排放权,并将获取的收入作为抑制公害的奖励和报酬。若入盟企业不守信用,则二氧化碳每超标排放1吨,就必须向交易所支付3.5美元排放权购买金。借鉴“气候交易所”经验,以“风力+沼气”电站和沼渣代化肥村,及“危旧房和农宅”太阳能与保温改造为突破口,尽快让秸秆、畜禽粪便、有机肥、危旧房屋和农宅等高耗能房的“碳排放信用”成为一种“货币”,建立“碳货币交易示范点和特区”与美国的奥克兰市等,结为“碳减排友好”城市。

投资少见效快的城乡统筹项目:

1、“风能+沼气”电站
2、“倍增充电”电动汽车 (见附件:专利说明书)
3、温室气体减排秸秆饲料(见附件:专利说明书)
4、沼渣代化肥示范村
5、废旧电池再生填埋厂
6、太阳能热水器和纤维或废渣建材节能保温房屋和新村
7、碳货币交易示范点
8、中美结对“碳减排”友好城市

(九三学社南通市委 窦观一 2009年6月11日 电话85169893)

Plan new energry development scientifically in urban and rural areas as a whole

Dou Guanyi: plan new energry development scientifically in urban and rural areas as a whole

1. The wind power sector is expanding rapidly in China, but the rural areas should be embraced in the new energy development. Wind power generation occupies a lot of land, in which biomass pool and plantation can be established at the same time near or beneath the power station. “Wind power and biomass” stations can exert an effect that new energy industry nurtures agriculture and city supports rural areas, which saves not only the land and power facility, but also the investment of capital.
3. The storage battery device totally takes up the room of back seat in the electric motor car, and the price cost as mush as 2.5 times as the common automobile. Small cars can run more than 600kms on 50 liters gas; while the storage battery device of the electrical motor car weighs at least 1 to 2 tons, and produces so much heat that almost burns the passengers. So it is urgent to manufacture the multiplication electric car that will drive 600 kms every charge which is 4 times more than a normal electrical car.
4. In the mass promotion of electrical car, another problem is the battery recycling. Every electrical car consumes 15kgs lithium, and every year the alternative fuels automobile eats up 1 million tons of lithium. However, in 2007, the world output of lithium was 2.5 million tons.
5. The straw incineration has been a "big headache" for long time. FAO reported that "There are two to three factors polluting the global environment, and cattle is one of major factors.” The CO2 emitted by 1.05 billion cows is up to 18% of global CO2 emissions. Such pollution is higher than the emissions coming from exhaust fumes. If we use 0.3 billion tons of straw to produce fodder that reduces the cattle fume emission, (topinambur, sweet sorghum), greenhouse gases will consequently decrease, and save 0.5~1.2 tons of food, which is equal to add grain land.
6. Each year in China animals produce 3 billion tons of manure, which is a major pollution source in rural areas. If we grow energy plants such as topinambur and sweet sorghum next to wind power station, and generate methane in farm to replace the liquid gas, the wasteland of wind power station will turn into “natural gas mine”, “biofuel” and “ organic fertilizer plant”, and take the place of coal fired power generation and automotive gas oil.
7. Owing to the excessive application of fertilizer, CO2 and CH4 emission are accelerated dramatically. The land which uses fertilizer exclusively emits CH4 three times more than those blending the fertilizer with pig manure, and seven times more than those using no fertilizer at all. Biomass pools and plantations can be built around the wind station and barren land. Huge amounts of the waste of methane can be used to replace chemical fertilizer. This not only lessen the greenhouse gas, but also improve output of low to medium crop land.
9. The Chicago Climate Exchange opened in US in 2003. Oakland city and the Chicago Climate Exchange promoted the emission rights to those member enterprises with good credit and took the revenue as bonus and reward of pollution abatement. If a member broke its promises, it had to pay $3.5 emission cost per ton of CO2. As for China, we should learn from the experience of the Chicago Climate Exchange, and launch “wind power and methane” power stations, the methane pool waste replacement of fertilizer and solar energy application upon old farmhouses. We should transform the “carbon emission credit” of straw, cattle waste, organic fertilizer and dangerous farmhouses which consume too much energy into a kind of “currency” as soon as possible, set “the demonstration destinations and special regions of carbon currency trading” and establish relationship with Oakland city in US as "carbon-reduction cities".

Effective projects to be enacted in cities and rural areas that require little investment:

1. “Wind power and methane” power station
2. The multiplication electric car (see the attached file: Patent Specification )
3. The fodder that reduce the cattle fume emission (see the attached file: Patent Specification )
4. The demonstration destinations using methane waste as fertilizer to replace chemical one.
5. The recycling and landfill plan of used batteries
6. The promotion of the solar heater, fiber or residue materials to establish energy saving houses and villages
7. The establishment of the demonstration destinations of carbon trading
8. Establishing relationships with US cities as "carbon-reduction cities".

By Dou Guanyi, from Jiusan association and municipal party committee of Nantong city, 2009.6.11, Tel: 85169893
Translated by Tian Liang

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

wxai

蒋先生四处出击啊,什么都很专业。

wxai

Mr.Jiang, the author, is really omnipresent, I can read your article almost anywhere. Plus, these articles, whatever the topic, are really professional.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

碳税而不是碳关税

我认为应该是碳税,而不是碳关税。但是征收标准确实很难制定

Carbon tax, not carbon tariff

In my opinion, it should be carbon tax rather than carbon tariff. Yet, it is difficult to formulate the collection standards.