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通向哥本哈根之路的全球减排路线图之一

一个国家应对气候变化的责任不应仅仅取决于“发展中”还是“发达”国家的判别。本文是《中外对话》连载的第一篇,享誉世界的经济学家胡鞍钢将解释代替性的分类原则。

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[本文由本网站和美国鲁特格斯大学的气候变化和社会政策行动合作刊发]

目前并没有一个为世界各国所接受的全球减排方案,其根本原因是原有的国家分类原则不适合现实情况,也不利于减排目标实现。为此,胡鞍钢教授提出全球减排中国家分类的两大原则:一,以人类发展指数Human Development Index,简称HDI)分类为基础的四分组原则,来替代发达国家与发展中国家两分组原则。二,污染排放大国减排主体原则。上述两个原则可以作为全球减排的约束指标。他根据这两大原则分析了中国应承担的减排责任和义务,并根据中国各地区净碳源和HDI情况提出了地方减排的路线图。他认为,中国可以通过承诺减排义务推动全球减排协议的达成,为世界做出新的绿色贡献。中外对话将分三部分刊载胡鞍钢的观点。


应按两大原则对全球国家重新分类

人类的未来是人类自我选择的结果,哥本哈根高峰会是全人类拯救地球的最后机会,却存在失败的可能性,即不能就减排目标和义务达成全球协议,全人类都将成为气候变化的受害者。中国也并不例外,她既是世界上人口最多的国家,也是世界上生态环境相对脆弱、国土面积最大的国家之一,既可能是全球公共产品的最大受益者,也可能是全球气候变化的最大受害者。

尽管世界已经变为一个愈来愈紧密的地球村,迄今为止,全球性国际组织和各国政治家还没有找出一个为200多个国家与地区所接受的共同减排目标和方案。按照目前各国的各自利益和要求看,很难达成全球减排协议,哥本哈根高峰会愈来愈临近,而失败的可能性却愈来愈大。它的失败,是人类的失败。

因此,在哥本哈根大会之前,必须提出一个能为各国所接受的国际气候政策模式和减排方案。这一方案必须能够重新定义发达国家和对发展中国家,从而明确未来的减排义务,动态地实施减排协议。目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》将世界200多个国家分类为两类国家组:发达国家和发展中国家。全球减排义务遵循分担原则,对发达国家有区别政策。但在世界现实之中,这两种分类方法十分粗糙,发达国家比较明确,如以经济合作发展组织(OECD)成员国为主。但发展中国家包含了100多个国家。因此减排义务成了少数发达国家的义务,这样反而不利于全球减排的。发展中国家不加入减排行列也成了一些发达国家拒绝减排的口实。

因此,必须重新划分减排国家的类型,充分考虑排放的流量和存量、人均排放和总量排放、历史责任和现实责任。

我们可以根据公平与效率的原则对世界200多个国家进行四组分类,取代传统的两组分类;根据世界主要排放国占世界总量来确定相应的减排贡献,为此我提出两大原则:

第一大原则是以人类发展指数(Human Development Index,简称HDI)分类为基础的四分组原则来替代发达国家与发展中国家两分组原则。

但是,UNDP没有对占世界人口最多,国家数量最多的中等发展水平国家做出区分。因此,我们对中等人类发展水平国家做进一步的区分,即将其划分为上中等人类发展水平国家和下中等人类发展水平国家。因此,总体上我们将HDI划分为四组,高HDI组(大于0.8)、上中等HDI组(0.65-0.8)、下中等HDI组(0.5-0.65)、低HDI组(小于0.5),即一个地球,四个世界。

目前高HDI组共70个国家,16亿人,占世界总人口的25.46%,他们是减排的主体,是无条件的减排国,即遵循联合国相关减排原则。越来越多的国家和人口将会进入高HDI组。根据UNDP《2005年人类发展报告》,2003年处于高HDI组的国家和地区为57个,总人口为12.1亿,占世界总人口的19.2%。也就是说,将会有越来越多的国家或地区承担无条件减排义务。

上中等HDI国(包括中国),共24.4亿人口,占世界总量的37.41%,他们应该成为全球减排的第二梯队,作为有条件减排国家。所谓有条件取决于该国HDI指标与0.8之间的差距,差距越小减排份额就越高。当他们的HDI从该组进入到高HDI组(即大于0.8组),他们就会从有条件减排国变为无条件减排国,例如中国将从2005年HDI的0.777,到2010年将达到0.8就自动成为无条件减排国。

联合国应设立专门机构监督无条件减排国和有条件减排国的减排措施及效果,并定期公布。

对其他两组即下中等HDI国和低HDI国不做强制性减排义务规定,但应该倡导这些国家根据本国国情自愿实施减排。

第二大原则是污染排放大国减排主体原则。目前,世界前20名排放国占了世界排放总量的75%(表2)。他们既是世界污染排放的主体,也是世界减排的主体,一个国家排放量占世界比重愈高,它对世界减排的贡献比例也愈高。其减排根据其对世界污染排放的负外部性分摊减排额度,谁排放的多,谁就减排的义务或减排额度就高,首先是第一阵营,美国和中国应当带头减排,他们的排放量合计占世界总量的38.14%;其次是第二阵营,包括俄罗斯、印度、日本,他们的排放比重都超过4%,合计14.23%;再次是第三阵营,剩余的15个国家占世界排放总量的22.89%。这一原则类似动态变化的减排参与国地图,同时应该充分考虑该国HDI水平。在这20个大国中,14个国家属于高HDI组,属于无条件强制减排国;有5个国家属于上中等HDI组,属于有条件减排国;只有印度属于下中等HDI组,但作为世界第四大排放国,应当积极实施减排。当它进入上中等HDI组时,则相应属于有条件主动减排国。

需要指出的是,HDI四组分类可以作为未来全球范围内转移支付的重要原则,这包括高HDI国成为主要援助国和技术转让国;低HDI国直接获得ODA援助,免费或低费技术转移援助;下中等HDI国获得低利率国际金融组织贷款援助,低费技术转移援助;上中等HDI国获得技术转移援助。由于UNDP每年公开发布世界各国HDI数据,该数据并不只是针对某一国家,而是针对所有国家的,成为制定全球减排方案与经济援助的主要依据,既简单又透明。

上述两个原则可以作为全球减排的约束指标。一个国家减排多少,一是取决于它的发展阶段,这当中饱含了该国排放的存量、人均排放水平和历史责任,HDI是一个非常好的衡量指标,它也优于人均GDP的分组指标,应该作为主要的依据;二是取决于一个国家对全球排放的总量,流量和现实责任,前20名排放国直接影响全球减排目标和行动的实现,因此他们未来的减排额度与排放总量直接挂钩。我们考虑可以按照上述原则作为哥本哈根全球峰会(Global Summit)确定 2050年各国(主要是高人类发展和20个污染主要排放国)减排目标的路线图,明确区分不同国家类型,确定达成全球减排协议的责任和义务。




胡鞍钢是中国著名经济学家,任中国科学院和清华大学教授、国情研究中心主任,是一流的政策智库成员。他同时任供政府高级官员阅读的参考刊物《中国国情研究报告》主编。

 

本文由本网站和美国鲁特格斯大学的气候变化和社会政策行动合作刊发

首页图片由Worldmapper - 版权所有 2006 社会与空间不平等研究小组 (英国谢菲尔德大学)以及马克·纽曼 (美国密歇根大学)

 

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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

Improve awareness, resolve the climate crisis

Greenhouse effect is the symptom, not the root of the problem! The policy is misleading! Ice and snow are melting at an accelerated rate! What is the future of mankind?!...We hope that media networks will investigate the truth, speak with honesty and solve the fundamental problems to alleviate global warming!The Service Community of New Ideas for Mankind.

Translated by Liu Jingya

升级思维意识·根治气候危机

温室效应治标不治本!决策带入误区!冰雪加速融化!人类前途命运何在?!········寄希望于媒体网络观实质说真实话·解根本阻止冰溶气暖!··········

人类新意服务共同体

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

Managing environmental pollution will not change global warming

Once again, there is proof that reducing the greenhouse effects of pollution and emissions is treating the symptoms but not the cause! Only a [Global New Engineering Project] can solve the fundamental problems of global warming! ---The Service Community of New Ideas for Mankind (Translated by Michelle Deeter)

环境污染治理不能变便气候变暖

事实重新证明降污减排的温室效应治标不治本!只有【地球新工程】可从根本解决全球气候变暖问题!

人类新意服务共同体

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

非常好的点子

你是对的。这比GDP要好得多。如果你的分类是对京都议定书的补充或者说是再也没有碳成分的整体性改变,你可以解释一下吗?不要担心G20峰会不会只字不提全球变暖的问题。

本评论由陈丽英翻译

very good idea

You are right. It is much better than GDP. Could you explain if your classification is a complement to the Kyoto Protocol or a whole change whithout anymore and any longer carbon shares? Don't you worry about the G20 whithout any words concerning the global warming?

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

仅仅是原则而已!

其实这两点原则看起来着实让人觉着很好。但具体来说如何操作,又是另外一回事儿。希望学者拿出更为详细的实施方案出来。在我看来,能够看到这两点并不难,难的是如何将此两条原则付诸于实践。(YZHK)

They are no more than some principals!

In fact these two principals do sound amazing, but talking about how to make them operational is another matter. I hope that academics can give us some more practical and detailed solutions. Personally I think it's not hard to understand these two points, the difficulty lies in how to carry out them. (YZHK)
(Translated by diaoshuhuan)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

分担并信守减排承诺

各国的减排承诺应该受到相应措施的规制,以便能够惩罚那些减排义务较轻的国家出售它们的排放指标。由谁来监督各国承诺的履行效果呢?对于那些无法实践承诺的国家该采取怎样的惩罚措施呢?对这些国家出口的排放密集产品及其进口的原料在全球范围征税吗(征收的税款又交给谁)?为何不要求那些军费开支(以及用于研制、维护核武器的费用)远高于实施减少温室气体排放及其他污染措施的国家作出更多承诺?(Translated by Yang bin)

Allocating and honouring commitments

Commitments should be weighted so as to penalise those who outsource their emissions to countries which have low obligations.

Who will monitor progress towards each country's commitment?

What penalties will be imposed on those who fail to meet their commitments? A globally prescribed tax (payable to who?) on their exports of emission-intensive products (e.g. paper, palm oil, vehicles) and their raw material imports for emission-intensive industries)?

Why not skew expected commitments towards those who spend far more on their military (and nuclear weapons) than measures which are effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other pollution?

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

不负责任的乌托邦式言论

作为国情专家,作者却在谈论气候变化问题时闭口不提中国的相关基本国情,大谈空谈国际公平和正义。作者缺乏对气候变化问题成因的深入认识,缺乏对相关国际政治的历史和现实的基本了解,在这样基础上提出的建议是误导读者的,是不负责任的,也是没有任何生命力的。两个建议,做起来也不算太难:1、请胡教授从自己做起,算算自己每年带来的温室气体排放,将自己的排放降到每年2吨CO2当量,以实际行动向大家证明他的理论是可行的;2、请胡教授读一读气候变化国际政治的历史材料,并参加至少一次气候变化国际谈判会议,真正了解一下这个问题的历史和现实。做了这两件事情之后,胡教授的建议可能更有生命力。
参加气候变化国际谈判的一个中国代表团成员于波恩谈判会场

Irresponsible utopian speeches!

As an expert in state affairs, the author mentions none of China's relevant basic conditions in his speech about climate change problems. Instead he focuses on empty talk about international fairness and justice. The author lacks intrinsic knowledge about how climate change problems have appeared and lacks any common sense of history or knowledge of the current situation of international politics. Because of this, his conclusions could mislead readers, which is irresponsible and without vitality.
Here are two pieces of advice which won't be too hard to realise: 1. To ask Professor Hu to start from himself, to calculate the volume of greenhouse gases he emits personally every year and then to reduce it to a yearly CO2 emission of 2 tonnes in order to show the feasibility of his ideas by his actions;
2.To ask Professor Hu to read some historical material about climate change and international politics and to participate in at least one international climate change conference to gain a thorough knowledge of the history and current situation of this problem. Only when he’s done these two things done can Professor Hu's suggestions become vital.
--By a member of the China delegation to the international conference on climate change at Bonn
(translated by diaoshuhuan)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

想法很好——但它能作用于中国政府吗?

一个根据人类发展指数而对国家进行归类的体制远比现在的这个二元体系好。至于高、中和低程度的人类发展指数这一说法也有其好处——“污染者代价”原则也是一样。我希望这些强有力的想法能够把中国政府带动起来。
(translated by diaoshuhuan)

Good Ideas - Does it have traction with the Chinese government?

A graduated HDI system of categorisation of states is superior than the current binary system. The notion of high, medium, and low HDI also has merit - so too the "polluter pays" principle. I hope these powerful ideas have traction with the Chinese government.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

中国急切需要自己的观点

气候中的公平问题已经成为谈判的一个胶着点。联合国气候公约这么多年了,大西洋对岸排放责任最大的国家刚刚开始准备起步减排,而最遭罪的小岛国和非洲穷国还没能从应对气候变化这个大蛋糕里分到一杯羹呢。
中国的情况很特别,我们即面临格外重的国际压力,也有格外巨大的潜力,目前面对压力我们总在反复强调作为发展中国家、尚有大量贫困人口。这固然是应该客观对待的,当然中国人也喜欢“用事实说话”,做得很多,谈得很少。但如果到哥本哈根的这几个月时间中国依然只是不断简单、保守的重复“公平”这个词汇,而无法拿出自己对公平和责任的具体观点和可行性建议,在这场举世瞩目的全球论战里恐怕会处于越来越不利的地位。这点上我觉得胡教授开了一个很好的头,抛出观点,展开讨论,宜早不宜迟。

p.s.我们也应该向美国学习,虽然可以谋定而后动,但如果真的有决心减排,应当尽早开始不遗余力的宣传沟通,这也能推高那些承担最大责任国家的减排“野心”。

参加气候变化国际谈判的一个NGO观察员于波恩谈判会场

China urgently needs a view of its own

The issue of equality and justice has become a sticking point in climate change control negotiation. For the many years between now and when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed, the country across the Atlantic that carries the biggest share of responsibility is only starting off on its own emission control, while small island countries and poor ones in Africa, bearing the thrust of climate change are yet to benefit from the framework. Looking back home, China is in a unique situation. We are both under heavy pressure from International society as well as in possession of huge potential. Chinese government is in a habit of emphasizing its status as a developing country with a large population in poverty when faced with pressure from international community. This is reality indeed. Chinese also know that action speaks louder than words. They do more than what they say. But if China keeps repeating the hackneyed refrain of “equality and justice” in the few months left before Copenhagen round of talks rather than putting forward its own views and propositions on this issue, it will find itself stuck in an ever unfavorable position. I believe Professor Hu has made a good motion by airing his viewpoint and sparking a popular discussion. The sooner we do this the better. At last, I think we can emulate America's approach. Though we can work out our strategy first before implementing specific measures, we should kick start our publicity and diplomacy campaign as early as possible once we make up our mind on emission control so as to raise the emission control targets of that country with largest responsibility. – an NGO observer at the scene of International negotiation on climate change, Bonn. (Translated by Yang bin)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

我们的气候谈判代表

我看到有个气候变化谈判代表对胡教授的激烈批评,希望胡教授带头做到这些了不起的“大事”。我认为,第一希望胡教授做到的这个排放标准并不难,难的是,胡教授做到了,又怎么样?
第二,为什么非要参加气候变化的什么会才有资格发表对气候自己的看法?这个简直就是胡扯。历史早就证明,并不是能参加会议的就是最能说事的人,我们国家混的人实在太多了,别的国家恐怕也差不多。咱们的代表的水平我就不好多说什么了。我们的要求,简单说来就是一个字,“钱”。发达国家给我们多少补偿,多少技术,多少钱。高主任给西方开出了要求,每年给中国1%的GDP作为支持中国减排的代价,希望我们能拿得到,至于怎么花,我早就想好了。

Our representative in climate negotiations

I saw that a delegate at the climate change negotiations has severely criticised Professor Hu and I hope that Professor Hu will take the lead in doing these extraordinary "big things". I think, firstly, I hope that it is not difficult for Professor Hu to do the emissions standards, the difficulty is after Professor Hu has done it, then what? Secondly, why is someone who does not want to take part in anything to do with climate change qualified to publish their opinion on the climate? This is simply nonsense. History has long proved that it is not those who are able to participate in meetings who are the most able to talk about the issues, in our country there are actually too many confused people and I'm afraid in other countries it is about the same. I say no more about the standard of our representatives. Our needs, put simply in a single word: 'money'. How many subsidies, how much technology, how much money the developed countries will give us. The directors present our request to the west, that every year they give China 1% of GDP to support the costs of reducing emissions, hope that we will get it, as for how to spend it, I've already thought of that.
(Translated by Jodie Gardiner)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

请教中国气候变化谈判代表

该代表团成员建议“请胡教授读一读气候变化国际政治的历史材料”,我们见识有限,也没有参加过这些会议,不知道这位代表团成员你都读过哪些材料,能不能给我们列出个单子来,也好我们参考参考。可别说都是些什么会议上的绝密文件噢。

To the Chinese reprsentative of climate change negotiation

This delegate advised that "Prof. Hu should read those international political history materials about climate change". Our knowledge is limited, and we have no occasion to take part in those conferences. We don't know which material this delegate has read, so could you give us a list that we can consult? Don’t tell us that these are some of the conferences "top secret" documents.
(Translated by Tian Liang)