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奥巴马绿色经济战略及中美合作前景

奥巴马总统正在采取大胆举措应对能源危机和气候变化。 牛纪涛在文章中认为,中美合作伙伴关系将在其中扮演至关重要的角色。

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大选获胜两个月来,奥巴马在积极兑现竞选期间做出的环境与能源方面承诺。他提名诺贝尔奖获得者朱棣文为能源部长,哈佛大学肯尼迪学院教授约翰·霍尔德伦为总统科技顾问,凸显出新政府发展清洁新能源和应对气候变化的决心。就职一周内,奥巴马即马不停蹄地签署两份总统备忘录,责令交通部为汽车制造商2011年推出的车型制定更高的节能标准,要求环保署允许加州对机动车辆温室气体排放采取比联邦政府更严格的标准。与此同时,奥巴马正在推动国会通过8250亿美元的经济刺激方案,其中包含200亿美元用于清洁能源免税,320亿美元用于升级电网促进清洁能源利用,160亿美元用于降低公共建筑能耗。当然,奥巴马政府何时能推动国会通过涵盖整个经济的二氧化碳限额与贸易制度尚不得而知,但新政府已经在大力矫正布什政府的各项政策,积极推动绿色经济的发展。美国环境与能源政策调整对全球应对气候变化,促进经济可持续发展意义重大,或将对中国发展战略产生积极影响。中美合作应对气候变化,事关全球应对气候变化的成败。环境与能源可能将成为决定未来中美关系发展的新领域。

次贷危机引发美国金融体系崩溃,伊拉克战争使美不堪军事和财政重负,美负责任领导者的形象跌到历史低点。这一切使环境似乎不会成为新总统关注重点,但现在恰恰是将环境与能源做为美核心议题的关键时刻。突出“绿色”,奥巴马可以为经济发展注入新的活力,重塑美负责任的领导者形象。同时,这也将给中国和美国带来共同解决气候变化问题的机会,加强两国政治经济关系。

应对气候变化,降低对化石能源的依赖是奥巴马竞选能源与环境政策的基石。奥巴马计划包括在未来10年投入1500亿美元用于可再生能源技术开发,在整个经济领域实施限额与贸易机制来控制温室气体排放以及积极投入联合国气候变化谈判进程。当然,面对日益恶化的金融危机,有人质疑1500亿美元的计划能否得以实施。但计划已包含了产生资金的机制,至少可担负建设绿色经济部分投资费用。

奥巴马计划呼吁通过整个经济领域的温室气体限额和贸易体系,鼓励企业创新,寻找新技术和新措施高效减排温室气体。新政府将会推动国会尽快通过有关法案。拍卖温室气体排放许可的收入可以在10年内为清洁能源技术持续提供1500亿美元资金。

奥巴马面临的挑战之一是保证美国内的环境和能源变革的同时,促进发展中国家尤其是中国也积极应对气候变化。奥巴马认为气候变化是全球共同挑战。他在9月给中国美国商会撰文称长久以来,美中在气候变化问题上相互指责,以推卸自己行动不够的责任。确实,美国因退出1997《京都议定书》,在2007年底印尼巴厘岛召开的联合国气候变化大会上表现不佳,广受指责。中国虽然是发展中国家,但随着美新政府重新执掌全球应对气候变化的领导权,中国将面临国际上要求中国加大应对气候变化力度的压力。

能源与气候变化或将成为主导中美未来关系的新领域。中美几乎消耗世界一半的能源,排放近一半的温室气体。推动能源变革,应对能源安全和气候变化都事关两国重大利益。煤炭是温室气体排放底主要来源之一。两国都需要降低对煤炭的依赖,煤电占中国发电量的78%,美国占50%。同样,在交通领域,美国占世界石油消费的25%,其中60%用于交通。国际能源组织预计中国汽车保有量将从五千多万辆增长到2030年的两亿五千万辆。20082月份的《科学》杂志预计,按目前的发展速度,到2030年中国的二氧化碳排放可能会达到80亿吨。

虽然中国在应对气候变化的步子不大,但也做了积极努力。尤其近年来,中国政府政策发生了重大转变。面对能源短缺和环境恶化的压力,中国设定了在20062010年间将单位国民生产总值能耗降低20%的目标,到2020年,将可再生能源比重占一次能源比重由7.5%提升到15%。同时,中央政府规定若能耗与环保目标不能实现,地方官员将担负相应责任。在一系列政策主导下,去年一年,几百座低效的小煤电锅炉关闭。清洁能源也取得了飞速发展:去年太阳能光伏电池产量居世界首位,风电的快速扩张也让国家能源局长张国宝预测中国几年内将成为世界风电第一大国。

中国能源和环境政策的发展有力地证明:针对中国阻碍减缓气候变化的指责(常常是美国政客的论调)是站不住脚的。事实上,一个德国环境非政府组织去年的一份研究指出,中国应对气候变化政策的表现超过美国。这项研依据气候变化政策的温室气体排放趋势,水平和效率,对全球56个排放大国排名,将美国排在55位,仅次于沙特阿拉伯。最近,美中都为应对气候变化做出了努力,但仍面临严峻挑战。正如奥巴马所言,气候变化是全球性挑战,美中应以此为契机,建立更为密切的伙伴关系。

 

下文发表于《中国安全》(2008年秋季版)。

牛纪涛是美国哈佛大学肯尼迪政治学院公共管理硕士研究生。他曾任职于中国外交部,也曾作为气候与能源项目主任在“绿色和平”工作。

 首页图片Pete Souza/White House photo

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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

合作第一次大于竞争?

读完文章,我想到一个问题:环保合作是不是人类历史上第一次出现的各个国家、各个政权间主要以共同利益而非自身利益为主而进行的合作呢?如果之前还出现过这样的合作,能否举个例子?我目前能想到的诸如政治集团、经济组织、外交同盟等,似乎都以争取各自团体利益而博弈。环保合作的动机固然不可能完全纯粹(当中应该会夹杂国际关系的博弈),但总体说来应该是共同利益大于个体利益。想请各位一起来讨论一下。

Cooperation is more important than competition for the first time?

After reading this article, I thought of a question: isn’t this effort to cooperate to protect the environment the first time in history where every country and every regime’s top priority is the common interest instead of their self-interest? Isn’t this the first time where every nation has attached so much importance and made so much progress cooperating? If this cooperation has happened before, can someone give an example? Right now I can only think of the following examples: political blocs, economic groups, and diplomatic alliances. They all seem to compete for their group’s interest, and playing some bigger game. Admittedly, the motives behind environmental protection are not purely good (among this we should add the games of international relations), but overall it looks like common interest is more important than self-interest. Everyone, please come and discuss this. (Translated by Michelle Deeter)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

绿色经济

中国现在实行的单双号车驾驶日制度已步入正轨,大大降低了二氧化碳排放量。中国人均二氧化碳排放量没有美国高。希望美国早日签署Kyoto protocol,实现绿色经济。

Green economy

Right now the bill that China will implement banning motorists from driving their cars every other day is all straightened out; it will greatly reduce carbon emissions. China’s per capita carbon emissions is not as much as that of the United States. I hope China will pass the Kyoto protocol soon, and put a green economy in place. (Translated by Michelle Deeter)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

防核扩散

防核扩散似乎是个例子。前有肯尼迪总统在古巴导弹危机中急流勇退,避免于苏联核对抗升级。近有朝核问题六方会谈。国际社会也通过《蒙特利尔议定书》,成功地解决了臭氧层空洞问题。但气候变化问题更复杂。 JT

Against the nuclear proliferation

It's a lot like anti nuclear proliferation. The former president Kennedy bravely withdrew in the Cuban Missile Crisis to avoid the escalating opposition against URSS. The recent six party meeting about North Korea's nuclear weapons is another example. The international community also resolved the problem of holes in the ozone layer through the Montreal Protocol, but climate change is more complicated than the nuclear issue. JT (translated by Tingting Xia)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

人类不应该做温水青蛙

“在气候变化问题上,人类社会就像谚语中的温水青蛙一样,当温度慢慢加热时,青蛙从来不想跃出去,直到最后被烫死。”——托马斯 弗里德曼《炎热,平坦和拥挤》
气候变化的问题在于今天的碳排放将影响到未来的气候变化,我们并不清楚50年后发生的一切,因而人类不愿为缓解危机采取重大举措。的确,奥巴马比布什做的要好,中国显得很是积极,国际社会将持续进行紧急协商。但是,恐怕人类所做的对于不可逆转的灾难性的后果来说远远不够。最近冰川融化加速以及极端天气事件频繁等迹象表明科学家们低估了气候变化的影响。约翰•霍尔德伦教授曾说过我们有三种选择来应对气候变化:缓解,即降低人类活动影响全球气候变化的步伐;适应,即减少人类导致气候变化的负面作用;承受缓解和适应都不能避免的负面作用。看起来,我们将会面临这三种选择。假如我们缓解得更多一些,未来我们遭受的痛苦将会更少一些。JT Niu
(Translated by Tian Liang)

Human should not be frogs

“When it comes to climate change, human society has been like the proverbial frog in the pail on the stove, where the heat gets turned up very slightly every hour, so the frog never thinks to jump out. It just keeps adjusting until it boils to death.” –Hot, Flat and Crowded, Thomas Friedman.

The problem with climate change is that carbon emission today will affect climate change in the future. We do not know exactly what will happen 50 years from now. Therefore, people tend to avoid making radical change to mitigate now. Yes, Obama is doing much better than Bush, China is quite proactive and international negotiations will proceed with some kind of urgency. But I am afraid we are not doing nearly enough to avert the trend to irreversible and disastrous impact. The recent signs of the acceleration of melting of glaciers and more frequent extreme weather events indicate that scientists have underestimated the impact of climate change.

Professor John Holdren used to say we have three options to deal with climate change: to mitigate, to adept and to suffer. It looks like we will face all the three options.If we mitigate more now, we will suffer less in the future. JT Niu

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

回 1楼

我觉得,生存需要导致每个人都是自私的,而国家是由人组成的,也是从自身利益出发,经过权衡利弊后决定自己的行动,而行动产生的后果会形成反馈,从而对行动做出修正,国家间的环保合作也符合上述的思维逻辑。

Reply to the first commend

In my opinion, the need for survival leads every person to become selfish. A country is composed of people and it decides its action after weighing the pros and cons from its own interests. The consequences of the action will bring some feedback, which will revise the action. The environmental protection cooperation between countries is also in line with the above logic.
(Translated by Jing Jiang)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

非传统安全

应该说,在政治、军事、外交等领域主权国家间一般很难齐心协力地开展合作,但在公共卫生、跨国犯罪、反恐等领域的合作是很多的,打击索马里海盗不就是一个挺好的例子吗?所以说,环保应该不是第一次合作了。其实,人类从一开始就明白合作共赢的道理,但是种种不理智的行为和错误的形势判断使得我们走了太多太多的弯路。

Non-traditional security

Generally sovereign states are very reluctant to pull their strength to promote cooperation between each other within the realms of political, military and foreign affairs. However, when it comes to issues such as public health, cross-border crime and anti-terrorism, there has been a lot of cooperation - the action against the Somali pirates is a good example. Environmental protection is also an area that states can easily cooperate in. Human beings do actually have a fundamental understanding of the principal of win-win situations, however irrational behaviour and misjudged situations take us on too many detours.
(Translated by Tian Liang; edited by Poppy Toland)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

优先投入

1.直到运载着核武器的苏联回去后,肯尼迪才撤走了美国军舰。肯尼迪没有承诺从土耳其移出导弹,但它们已经十分老化以至于对于地面人员而不是苏联来说更为危险。
2.合作意味着除了从美国引进资金和技术,中国必须做更多的事情。中国需要持之以恒地严格执行环境法规,甚至是对军队和高层干部投资的企业。介于中国的水资源、食品以及空气极度缺乏,中国应该减少空间和军事项目投入。这是一个优先权的问题。
(Translated by Tian Liang)

Spending priorities

1. Kennedy did not withdraw the ships until after the Soviet cargo ships carrying nukes turned around. Kennedy did promise to remove nuke missiles from Turkey but they were so old they were more dangerous to the ground crews than the USSR.

2. Cooperation means that China is going have to do more than just take money and technology from the US. China needs to uniformly and consistently enforce environmental laws, even against the PLA and businesses whose investors are senior cadres. China should also stop spending to much on its space and military programs seeing as how China is critically short of water, clean water, clean food and clean air. It is about priorities.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

回复4号评论

很好的道理但决策者似乎不懂(专家组正确)·学者明白(没有更好的办法)·阴差阳错错失良机--冰雪融化加速度······
改变气候环境必须标本兼治!······

Reply to comment #4

There is a simple logic here (which the panel were correct about), but which policymakers don’t seem able to understand. Only academics understand (that there are no better solutions.

Due to a combination of factors, we have lost many good opportunities and the icecaps are melting at an accelerated pace.

To solve climate and environmental problems, we need to simultaneously address the symptom and root of the problem.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

艰难的合作

中美在应对气候变化上的合作,目前看来,简直就是不可能的。包括中国在内的发展中国家一直在想方设法和发达国家,特别是美国,算旧账。一直还在讨价还价,到底西方发达国家究竟给我们什么补偿,给我们什么技术转让,我们才愿意作出绝对排放量的削减的承诺。

在我们回答这些复杂的问题以前,我们需要问问自己,为什么这些发达国家开展绿色运动?难道人家都是雷锋,都是好人和君子?而我们国家的人素质低劣,都是无赖和泼皮嘛?

应对气候变化,到底对我们的经济有多大的冲击,是好事还是坏事,好在哪,坏在哪?

在得出科学的答案以前,我看我们还是老老实实的补补课,先从基本的抓起。

每次想到我们的风电和太阳能我就头大,我们很自豪啊,风电新增容量世界第一;太阳能光伏发电产能世界第一,我们还有十一五节能20%的国家计划,我们很好啊,甚至比美国还要好。我们看看风能都在那儿吧:新疆,内蒙,云南,四川等,需要跋山涉水,送到东部发达地区或者沿海发达地区来。问题在那儿呢?风大的地方基本上都是穷山沟,每人用得起这些风电,没有工业,也用不了这么多电。况且,早就有报道说,这些设施的开工率严重不足,最近我们国家的发电机组平均运行小时数下降了超过10%。说白了,就是写摆设,是一些大型利益集团为未来设的局。就像水电一样,我们的大川和大河都被水电站截断了,这些电子,要快越无数高山,经过几十万伏特电压送到沿海地区,倒下一个电线杆,咱们就完蛋了,2007年的雪灾不是已经告诉我们了嘛?

再看太阳能,除了太阳能热水器还行以外,咱们的大型的太阳能光伏发电企业就是两头在外:原料95%进口,市场98%在海外,特别是欧洲的西班牙和德国。我们为什么不使用这么好的东西? 答案是:太贵。

至于咱们国家的十一五节能计划,我不想说太多。我只能说是心有余而力不足。

我不想只做个评论家。我觉得我们唯一的出路就是西方世界帮助中国的同时,也得到中国的帮助,这是个需要市场发挥作用的时刻。至于这些政客到底是不是理解节能市场以及节能的经济学,我就不知道了。

Difficult cooperation

Sino-American cooperation on climate change currently looks virtually impossible. Developing countries, including China, always do everything possible and developed countries, especially America, count outstanding debts. They are always bargaining, what compensation western developed countries have actually given us, what technological transfer, we are only willing to make promises to reduce emissions. Before we answer these complicated questions, we need to ask ourselves, why are developed countries starting green activities? Is everyone like Lei Feng? are we all good and noble people? Or is the calibre of the people of our country inferior, are we all scoundrels and rogues? As for climate change, how much of an impact will it actually have on our economy, is a good thing or a bad thing, what's good about it, what's bad about it? Before we get scientific answers, I see that we are still making up for missed lessons, we need first to grasp the basics. Everytime I think of our wind power or solar energy I get a headache; we are very proud, we are world number one for increasing output from wind power; we are world number one for producing electricity from solar energy, we also have a 20% energy saving target in the 11th 5 year plan; we are very good, even better than America. Look at where the wind power comes from: from Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Sichuan etc over mountains and across rivers to the developed areas in the east and to the developed coastal areas. Where's the problem? Windy areas are mostly poor remote mountain areas, everyone can afford to use the wind power, there's no industry and less electricity is used. In addition, for a while reports have said that these facilities are not being developed enough, the running hours of power generating units in our country recently fell by over 10% on average. To put it bluntly, it's a ruse on the part of large scale interest groups for the future. It's the same for hydroelectric power: our major rivers are all dammed for hydroelectric power stations and this electricity will soon cross countless mountains at a voltage of hundreds of thousands of volts to the coastal regions down an electricity cable. We're doomed. Haven't the snow storms of 2007 already shown us that? Look at solar power. Apart from solar power water heaters, our large solar power companies are overseas at both ends: 95% of raw materials are imported, 98% of the market is overseas, Spain and Germany in particular. Why aren't we using such good things? the answer is: they are too expensive. As for our energy saving plan, we don't want to say too much. I can only say that our ambition outstrips our ability. I don't want to just be a critic. I think the only way forward is for the western world to help China and at the same time to receive help from China, this is a time when we need to use the market. As for the politicians, whether they actually understand energy markets and the energy economy or not, I don't know. (Translated by Jodie Gardiner)