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养活九十亿人

暂时的价格下跌,给决策者们提供了一个确保所有人粮食安全的重大机遇。亚历克斯•埃文斯撰写了一份新报告,就此发表了他的建议。

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粮食价格已从去年的高峰大幅下降,但这并不意味着决策者们可以长舒一口气了。首先,对于穷人和贫困国家,当前的价格水平依然很成问题。此外,当全球脱离不景气的时候,价格就会恢复涨势。因此,决策者们需把当前的价格走低当作机遇,就采取广泛的、长期的集体行动达成一致意见,确保二十一世纪所有人的粮食安全。

以上就是《养活九十亿人[pdf]的中心论点,这是一份由查塔姆研究所最新发布的有关粮食价格和粮食短缺的报告。报告指出,长期需求驱动因素(本世纪中叶人口将超过90亿,以及壮大中的“全球中产阶级”的财富和期望不断增加)只说明了部分的事实:世界银行预测到2030年粮食需求将增加50%。

与此同时,粮食短缺问题将对供应方提出越来越多的挑战。经济脱离不景气之后,油价势必再次上涨,原因是油价下跌导致新的生产投资萎缩,为未来的供应危机埋下祸根。受生物燃料、肥料价格和运输成本的影响,粮食价格可能随着油价的攀升而上涨。从长远来看,气候变化、水资源短缺和土地竞争也将推动粮食价格的上升。

那么,该怎么办呢?主要有以下四个方面:

首先,我们要进行一场二十一世纪的绿色革命,而且要快。在过去的25年里,援助捐赠者和发展中国家政府在农业上的支出大幅减少。研发上也遭遇到同样的情况。现在的核心任务是,脱离当前的不可持续的、投入密集型农业,走向知识密集型农业。转基因作物可以种植,但是生态综合治理(如土壤肥力综合管理)在公平性和社会抗逆力上往往更为可取,原因是权力分散到了农民手里,而不是集中在种子公司。

其次,我们要扩大发展中国家的社会保障体系。目前,有近10亿人食不果腹。而事实上,还有1亿人属于超重或肥胖,因而问题不在于粮食供应不足,而是仅仅是穷人买不起粮食。对发展中国家而言,社会保障体系(如食品安全网络、失业津贴和学校膳食计划)与价格管制或经济全方位补贴相比,乃是更好的选择。它们把目标对准需要帮助的地方,而且它们不会使银行破产。然而,迄今为止,全世界只有20%的人拥有社会保障。

第三,在粮食贸易方面大有文章可做。决策者可以考虑的选择之一,就是建立粮食库存全球协作体制(类似于国际能源机构在紧急情况下管理石油储备的制度),可以籍此建立应对类似去年夏季粮价恐慌引发价格波动的弹性。鉴于建立WTO贸易规则是为了解决市场准入的争端,而不是确保供应安全,决策者还要从贸易规则上想办法,从而有助于管理停止出口的风险。而且,发达经济体(尤其是欧盟和美国)的农业扶持政策造成了发展中国家农业的结构性破坏,改革势在必行。

最后,有一种看法依然没有过时,正如印度独立运动领导人圣雄甘地所言:“足以满足每个人的需求,但无法满足每个人的贪欲”。全球消费者群体尚未认识到,无论从粮食消耗量、耗水量、能源消耗量还是从温室气体排放上看,其富含肉类和奶制品的“西式饮食”,比其他人的饮食要消耗更多的资源。这并不意味着人人都得吃素食,但消费者确实需要正视合理分享的问题。对于生物燃料也是如此:生物燃料并不是都有问题,但是像用玉米制造乙醇这样的效率极其低下的选择,在一个可持续的或者合理的农业体系中是站不住脚的。

不可避免地,问题出现了,也就是信用危机和全球不景气是否把决策者们的心思集中在短期经济问题上。援助支出已开始减少,这是个令人担忧的信号。在另一方面,令人欣慰的是,多边体系依然强烈关注食品、能源和气候变化的三重危机(来自国际货币基金组织的一位官员告诉我:“我们现在最担负不起的是另一个危机悄然来袭”)。

值得乐观的另一个原因,在于贯穿农业历史的令人惊叹的创新故事——而且未来将有更多的创新。但是,单靠创新显然是不够的,例如,二十世纪的绿色革命在产量上实现了巨大的飞跃,但是也使大量的农业劳动力失业,大农场主首先受益,其次才是小农场主(如果真能受益的话),而且基本上绕过了非洲。技术创新必须有相应的政治手段——而且真正致力于社会公正。

最重要的是,尽管农业历经万年才发展到当前的水平,但是我们可能(在艰苦努力但牺牲不大的情况下)在十年之内实现我们所必需的更加高产、更加可持续、更有弹性和更加合理的粮食体系,这就是希望之所在。乌云(包括经济乌云等)正在聚集,然而,完成一个贯穿整个人类历史的追求的希望如今就在眼前:确保每一个人因为知道始终有足够的食物而每天过得安安心心。

亚历克斯·埃文斯:纽约大学国际合作中心非驻校研究员,外交政策博客网站www.GlobalDashboard.org编辑。

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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

我们将来能吃什么?

我很担心100年后我们的食物来源。我们会有足够的食物么?在那时候的气候条件下,还能有粮食生长么?我很担心Thomas Malthus的预言会变成现实。
(Translated by Jing Jiang)

where will our food come from?

I'm really worried about where our food will come from in the next 100 years. Will we have enough to eat? Will there even be a climate in which we can grow food? I'm worried about the predictions of Thomas Malthus coming true.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

食品储备

我认为,效仿国际能源机构对石油储备的管理,建立起食品储备这个主意,听起来格外有效。 科学家预测伴随着地球变暖极端天气会增多。因此,为了养活规模将更庞大的人口,我们必须关注如何为粮食短缺做好充分的准备。

Food stocks

I think that the idea of food stocks, modeled off of the International Energy Agency’s management of oil reserves, sounds especially promising. Scientists have predicted that more extreme weather will accompany global warming. As such, and with a greater population to support, we really must be concerned with adequately preparing for food shortages.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

吃的变化

西方人重营养摄入,所以每天要吃大块的肉,比如牛肉,鸡肉等,而传统的中国饮食以素菜为主,肉类为辅。但如今,中国人似乎越来越接受“营养”的观念,加上方便省时的考虑,人们更愿意去吃汉堡了。

Changing What We Eat

Western people are serious about consuming nourishing food, so they eat big pieces of meat every day, like beef, chicken, etc. Traditional Chinese food and drink relies on vegetables, with meat as a supplement. But nowadays, more and more Chinese people have that "nourishment" mindset. And when you add on the convenience of saving time, more people are willing to eat hamburgers.
(Translated by Jacob Fromer)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

农业补贴的冲击

与发达国家相比,发展中国家从事农业的人口要多出很多,在劳动力成本上占有优势。但发达国家的农场主每年能拿到政府的很多补贴,粮食能以低价卖出,直接占据了国际粮食市场,使得发展中国家民众种粮无利可图,甚至直接放弃了种粮食的想法。不知道这种思路是否讲得过去?

The impact of agricultural subsidy

Compared with developed countries, developing countries have a much larger farming population, so they have an advantage in the cost of the labor force. But in developed countries, farmers can get a lot of subsidies from the government every year, and they sell food at a lower price, which sweeps across the international food market immediately. As a result,this process leaves farmers in developing countries in a profitless situation, and some of them are even considering giving up farming. I wonder whether that's how things will work out?
translated by diaoshuhuan

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

中国面临着粮食危机吗

个人认为中国大部分地区还是没有粮食危机的。在此方面所做的事情有两点:一、预测控制由于粮食问题引起的社会稳定问题;二、对偏远贫困地区人们的扶助。两个方面都需要关注,前者是一种预警;后者则是平等的保障。微观上来讲,应该倡导一种健康生态的饮食习惯,素食主义者的行为似乎看起来觉着不可思议,其实也许是非常科学和合理的。

Is China facing food crisis?

Personally, I think there is no food crisis in most parts of China. I have been concerned about two aspects of things in this regard:
The first is that to predict and control the social stability issue caused by food security issues. The second is to give support to people in remote, poverty-stricken areas. Both of these issues need attention: the former is a warning, and the latter is of equal importance. For everyday life, we should advocate healthy, ecological eating habits. Vegetarianism may seem strange, but in fact, it may be very scientific and reasonable.
(Translated by Lulu JIANG)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

食品安全

我们现在的食品安全吗?类似三聚氰氨事件的还有多少没有被公开?我们摆上超市的所谓无公害蔬菜瓜果到底是真的无公害?那些普通蔬菜水果的农药残留符合国家标准就一定安全吗?我们如果不解决食品安全问题的话,中国人什么时候会生不出孩子来?到时再采取措施就什么都晚了。

Food safety

Is our food safe? Like what happened with the melamine accident, how many things have not been exposed? Are the so-called non-polluted vegetables and fruits really clean? When the pesticide residues in common fruits and vegetables are considered in line with the national standards, are they really safe? Will it come to the point when Chinese women are infertile because of poor food safety? At that point, it will be too late to do something.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

素食

你觉得素食在中国是怎样的情况?它是否会成为一种更普遍的吃法?(翻译Michelle Deeter)

vegetarian

What do you think is the state of vegatarians in China? Will it ever become a more popular way of eating?

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

可否从平时少吃肉做起

在生活中,完全不吃肉蛋估计挺困难,在应酬中让主人挺尴尬的,毕竟目前素食主义还只是停留在“时尚”层面,多数中国人还是习惯“食肉者贵”的思维方式。

Can we start from eating less meat?

In reality, it might be difficult to stop eating meat and egg completely. It can be quite embarrassing for your host in social occasions. After all, vegetarianism seems to be merely a 'fashionable' way of life. Most Chinese are used to the idea that 'rich people eat meat'.

(translated by xiulu)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

素食治标不治本

在保育意识不足的情况下,我认为即使吃素不吃肉,对于解决粮食问题作用不大。

Vegetarianism doesn't help much

Given lack of good eating habits, I think even if we only eat vegetables and no meat, it makes little difference on resolving the food problem.

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meter

可见您没有试过素食

为什么我们要推广素食,与您的意见相反,能标本兼治的,恰恰是素食!
为什么粮食不够,不是我们粮食真的不够,而是我们的欲望太深,深到无底,而素食恰恰是可以让人的身心达到一个合理欲望的生活方式。您愿意试试吗?

you haven't tried vegetarian food yet

Contrary to your opinion, it is vegetarian food that can address both the symptoms and root causes.that's exactly why we are keen in promoting vegetarian diet.

Why is food under tight supply? in fact, it not because we don't have enough food but we have too much insatiable desires.and a vegetarian diet is exactly what you can lead a desire-controld life style with. Would you have a try?